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For the Samajwadi Party (SP) to be taken seriously post-election, it would need to win at least 45 to 50 Lok Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh, which is a tall order given the declining popularity of the Akhilesh Yadav government in the state. The race for the Prime Minister’s chair has intensified. SP boss Mulayam Singh Yadav, too, is eyeing the chair as it is a now or never for him.
A whole new crop of potential Prime Ministers from different social segments has emerged, among them Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Nitish Kumar, J Jayalalithaa and Mayawati. At present, it’s difficult to figure out where exactly the SP boss stands.
In the past, the SP supremo admitted that it was ‘natural’ to crave for the country’s top job because no politician was a ‘saint’. In 1996, HD Deve Gowda, a leader of the undivided Janata Dal with 45 MPs, had become Prime Minister in the United Front (UF) government. Will Praksah Karat be able to step into Harkishen Singh Surjeet’s shoes and crafting a ‘Third Front’ coalition like the late Communist Party of India (Marxist) general secretary did with the UF in 1996. Yadav knows that without the Left's support, a Third Front is not viable.
In early 2010, the party suffered a stunning upset when Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple lost the Ferozabad Lok Sabha seat to Samajwadi-turned-Congressman Raj Babbar. Akhilesh Yadav was promptly anointed as the UP Samajwadi Party chief. Yadav gave him full powers to clean up the party and restore its original identity. Akhilesh Yadav adopted a dual strategy: one, after booting out Amar Singh, he brought back Azam Khan, the party’s best-known Muslim face. He went for an image makeover for the Samajwadi, giving it an appearance of a forward-looking party that did not look cynically at English and technology. Critics say the party is tarred by association with people who have criminal pasts.
On Tuesday, Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav jointly sounded the party’s bugle for 2014 Lok Sabha elections from Azamgarh in UP. The former champion wrestler predicted neither the Congress nor the BJP would be able to form the next government at the Centre. The vaccuum can be filled only by a Third Front, he said, adding such a coalition will be firmed up after the polls, likely to be held in April-May.
Political observers are of the view that the SP chief’s desire for the throne of Delhi has been blunted by three main factors.
. Firstly, the way Yadav bailed out the Congress party each time the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government was in crisis has not gone down well with the voters. His game plan was not backed by a long-term programme.
. Secondly, there is a perception that he is too much of a Hindi belt politician, without a pan-Indian appeal.
. Thirdly, is his history of flip-flops.
On the contrary, Gujarat Chief Minister and BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s pull owes to four factors in UP.
. One, an opinion that the UPA government is probably 'corrupt', and that the SP allowed the rot to grow.
. Two, a belief that Modi is a progressive and 'incorruptible' leader as he is credited with helping Gujarat's economy achieve average yearly growth in the double digits in the past decade.
. Three, a feeling generated by the Muzaffarnagar communal riots that the Akhilesh Yadav-led government panders excessively to the minorities.
. Two, a belief that Modi is a progressive and 'incorruptible' leader as he is credited with helping Gujarat's economy achieve average yearly growth in the double digits in the past decade.
. Three, a feeling generated by the Muzaffarnagar communal riots that the Akhilesh Yadav-led government panders excessively to the minorities.
. Four, the Hindutva mascot is from other backward caste (OBC).
Political pundits say Netaji’s (as Mulayam is called by colleagues) party won UP Assembly polls last year not just with the votes of its core supporters, the Yadavs and Muslims, but also upper castes who tip the balance in many seats.
But the Muzaffarnagar riots as well as the suspension of bureaucrat Durga Shakti Nagpal, ostensibly on charges of bringing down a mosque wall in Noida, the party feedback is that the Brahmins, Thakurs, Kayasthas and the Banias are disappointed with Yadav. Some perceived flip-flops have dented the Samajwadi boss’s credentials.
But the Muzaffarnagar riots as well as the suspension of bureaucrat Durga Shakti Nagpal, ostensibly on charges of bringing down a mosque wall in Noida, the party feedback is that the Brahmins, Thakurs, Kayasthas and the Banias are disappointed with Yadav. Some perceived flip-flops have dented the Samajwadi boss’s credentials.
