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When the going gets tough, the tough get going. It seems political parties have taken this saying quite literally, at least when it comes to fielding candidates with criminal records. Data compiled by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) on the background of candidates contesting Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi clearly suggest that parties in the Opposition are more likely to field candidates with criminal records than the ruling party. Data also bring out the fact that, whether in the government or in the Opposition, the Congress has preferred to field richer candidates than other parties.
While the Congress, when in the Opposition, fielded more tainted candidates in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, it was the turn of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to give more tickets to candidates with criminal records in Rajasthan and Delhi, the two states where it is in the Opposition.
Let us look at some facts. In Madhya Pradesh, nearly 40 per cent of the Congress candidates have criminal records as opposed to 27 per cent of BJP candidates. In neighbouring Chhattisgarh, the corresponding figures for the Congress and the BJP are 20 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. Similarly, in Rajasthan, where the Congress is the ruling party, it has fielded fewer candidates with criminal antecedents (14 per cent) compared to the BJP (16 per cent). The pattern has been repeated in Delhi. Here, the Congress has preferred 21 per cent tainted candidates compared to the BJP's 46 per cent.
Does this suggest a trend? Milan Vaishnav, an associate with the South Asia programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has tracked recent elections very closely, tends to differ. He says: "In some instances, it appears that parties in the opposition are more likely to field candidates with criminal record. However, this could be linked to the fact that incumbent parties have greater influence over the state apparatus. However, it is difficult to make systematic claims about such a pattern. If one looks at the 2010 Bihar elections, for instance, the ruling BJP and JD(U) had among the highest rates of candidates facing criminal charges, including those of a serious nature."
Several studies have already established why parties prefer candidates with criminal antecedents over others. Analysis of the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha election results prove that candidates with criminal background are three times more likely to win elections.
Vaishnav observes: "Candidates with criminal records are significantly more likely to win elections than their 'clean' counterparts. If one were to pick at random a candidate contesting national polls in either 2004 or 2009, he would-on an average-have a seven per cent chance of winning. On the other hand, nearly one in five (or 22%) candidates facing criminal charges is successful." This explains why parties in the Opposition, driven as they are with the desire to grab power, field more candidates with criminal charges against them. Muscle is not the only power that enhances the chances of securing a victory in elections. Studies have shown that money power does play an equally important role. According to the ADR analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha results, in as many as 184 (34 per cent) constituencies, candidates with highest declared assets won the elections. And in another 24 per cent constituencies, candidates with second highest declared assets secured victory. Which means in almost 58 per cent constituencies, candidates with highest or second highest assets won elections.
In the ongoing Assembly elections, Congress candidates seem to have far greater access to money power. In all four key states where Assembly elections are being held, average assets of Congress candidates are higher than candidates of other parties. In Madhya Pradesh, for instance, average assets of a Congress candidate is Rs 5.33 crore compared to the BJP candidate's average assets of Rs 4.04 crore, according to ADR data. However, the BJP has fielded more crorepati candidates (70 per cent) compared to the Congress (66 per cent).
In Rajasthan, money power is evenly balanced between the Congress and the BJP. Congress candidates' average assets at Rs 4.79 crore is slightly higher than the BJP's Rs 4.36 crore, according to ADR. However, the difference is quite high in Chhattisgarh and Delhi. Average assets of Congress candidates in Chhattisgarh stands at Rs 9.32 crore whereas average assets of BJP candidates is Rs 1.95 crore. The corresponding figures for the Congress and the BJP stands at Rs 14.25 crore and 8.16 crore respectively. Even average assets of Aam Adami Party candidates in Delhi at Rs 2.51 crore is not quite Aam Adami like.
Anurag Mittal, National Coordinator of ADR says: "Parties are still fielding candidates with criminal record. The influence of money power is visible. But with heightened awareness, parties have become careful and overall, there has been a reduction in the number of candidates with criminal background."
