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Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi's outburst against the Ordinance that sought to protect convicted politicians was neither spontaneous nor irrational. It was a calculated move aimed at protecting his party from a possible backlash with minimum loss. On Friday, he termed the ordinance, recently cleared by the cabinet, "complete nonsense", which ought to be "torn up and thrown away".
While his statement may have led to temporary loss of face for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government, the move may put the Congress and other national parties in an advantageous position in Lok Sabha elections due next years. Data clearly suggest that while national parties may have to make small adjustments, regional parties will have to make far bigger changes when it comes to fielding candidates with proven track record of electoral success.
Fewer MPs belonging to national parties face serious criminal charges as compared to influential regional political formations like the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Party (RJD) and the Shiv Sena.
Gandhi's public statement is most likely to result in withdrawal of the ordinance, which has been sent to the President for approval. It may also seal the fate of a possible legislation to give extended lease of life to convicted politicians. This means, the current Lok Sabha is unlikely to overturn the Supreme Court ruling, that legislators convicted in criminal cases that carry two-year jail term will be disqualified. And this may force political parties to desist from fielding candidates with serious criminal cases pending.
"Ordinance or no ordinance, we have been consistently fighting against criminalisation of politics for many years, "says D Raja, Rajya Sabha MP and national secretary of the Communist Party of India. He adds that his party was opposed to the ordinance in the first place.
Will this mean the diminishing influence of crime in politics? Unlikely in the short-term. "The withdrawal of the Ordinance protecting convicted legislators would be a positive step by the government, but it should be understood as a very small step. Since 2008, only 0.5 per cent of elected MPs and MLAs have declared ever being convicted by a court of law. The fact is that lawmakers rarely face conviction due to the well-known shortcomings of the justice system. The central issue is addressing lawmakers and candidates with pending criminal cases. This constitutes the vast majority of politicians who face criminal scrutiny," says Milan Vaishnav, an associate with the South Asia programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Vaishnav has written extensively on crime-politics nexus in the Indian political system.
Anand Kumar, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, agrees and says a likely withdrawal of the ordinance and the recent Supreme Court ruling on right to reject are steps in the right direction. "But unless they are supported by measures like state funding of elections and right to recall, they alone cannot clean up the political system," he adds.
But the most immediate impact of Gandhi's pronouncement will be felt by political parties as they are getting ready to prepare lists of contestants for the forthcoming Lok sabha elections. They may have to partially abandon the tried and tested formula of fielding candidates with money and muscle power. The bigger the adjustment, the higher the negative impact as studies have shown that candidates reporting criminal charges are two to three times more likely to win elections than others. And regional parties have used this formula much more than national parties.
According to the data compiled by the Association of Democratic Reforms, only six per cent sitting Lok Sabha MPs of the Congress, 16 per cent of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and six per cent of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M) have serious criminal cases pending against them. Denying tickets to less than 15 per cent sitting MPs may not be so difficult to these parties.
On the other hand, influential regional parties stare at the risk of changing at least a third of their sitting MPs.
As many as 27 per cent of Shiv Sena MPs, 35 per cent of SP MPs, 29 per cent of BSP, 33 per cent of Nationalist Congress Party, 44 per cent of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), 50 per cent of RJD and100 per cent of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha MPs in the current Lok Sabha face serious criminal charges. Observers say while national parties have much bigger pool of politicians to choose from and they can very well make adjustment, even if they have to change some candidates. Regional parties, on the other hand, have a limited resource pool to select their candidates from.
Analysis of data since 2004 too establishes the same broad trend. Of all legislators (MPs and MLAs) who have won on Congress tickets, only eight per cent face serious criminal charges. In the case of the BJP, it is 13 per cent; for the CPI (M), it is nine per cent and for the Communist Party of India, it stands at 12 per cent.
However, in the case of SP, it stands at 22 per cent; for the BSP, 18 per cent; for the Janata Dal (United), 28 per cent; Trinamool Congress 23 per cent; RJD 26 per cent; Shiv Sena 31 per cent and two southern heavyweights, the AIADMK and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, 15 and 13 per cent, respectively. "Regional parties are like younger sisters of national parties, more notorious and quite used to throwing tantrums. But don't discount the notoriety of national parties," says Anand Kumar.
However, Vaishnav does not quite subscribe to the view that it will be advantage national parties in the forthcoming election.
He says: "Both regional and national parties give tickets to candidates with serious criminal cases. This is a strategy virtually all parties use. If the Ordinance is withdrawn and convicted lawmakers must give up their seats, this will be a negative outcome for political parties of all stripes. It is true that Lalu Prasad Yadav (of RJD) may be the first victim of this new ruling if he is found guilty in the fodder scam case. Overall, however, I do not think it will disadvantage regional over national parties."
