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They have met four times in the last two months and have supported each other on many issues. While Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has backed Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s demand for a full statehood for the national capital, Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has reportedly reciprocated by deciding not to contest the forthcoming elections in Bihar. The AAP has also indicated that it will campaign against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar. Kumar’s camp is hopeful that Kejriwal may address some joint rallies with the Bihar chief minister in the run up to the assembly elections. The AAP is non-committal on this issue though.
Is this the big boost Nitish Kumar is looking for to get a third term as the chief minister? Those who say yes give several reasons for that. They say that because of Kejriwal’s popularity among the youth, his open association with Nitish will help the latter fetch some additional votes from the first-time voters. If that happens, it will indeed be a big game changer as there are likely to be 50-60,000 first-time voters in each of the 243 assembly constituencies in the state.
The association with Kejriwal, so goes the argument, is also expected to help Nitish win a sizeable chunk of migrant voters, at least those who are settled in and around Delhi. Poorvanchali voters (those who are from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh), numbering in excess of four million in Delhi, reportedly voted overwhelmingly for the AAP in the February Delhi assembly elections. With Kejriwal on his side, Nitish is expected to win hearts and minds of migrants. Since the assembly elections in Bihar are expected to take place in October, many of the migrants will be back home and may influence the voting behaviour of their family members. And those who can will exercise their franchise as well.
Those who consider Nitish-Kejriwal bonhomie a game changer also argue that Kejriwal’s clean image may also prove to be beneficial for Nitish.
While most of these arguments seem convincing on the face of it, my sense is Nitish’s association with Kejriwal, may not have any substantive impact on the electoral outcome in Bihar. Here is why I say so. We have seen in the past that the political behaviour of both migrant and young voters have been very volatile. Take the case of Delhi itself. While the BJP happened to be a favourite party for both these groups in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP walked away with most of their voters only nine months later in the assembly elections in the national capital.
Let us not forget that elections for state assemblies are fought on local issues. While Kejriwal may be able to attract large crowds in Delhi, his popularity in Bihar is yet to be tested. In fact, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, AAP polled less than 1 per cent of votes despite contesting in 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats.
Nitish-Kejriwal meetings or open support for each other may catch media attention, but their impact on who wins the race for Patliputra will be nothing more than symbolic. If it works there will be several voices of “I told you so”. If it does not, then there will be several more people saying “it was never meant to be”.
