Total cellular services revenue in India is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 percent from 2008-2012 to exceed US$37 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. The India mobile subscriber base is set to exceed 737 million connections by 2012 growing at a CAGR of 21 percent in the same period. This growth is poised to continue through the forecast period, and India is expected to remain the world's second largest wireless market after China in terms of mobile connections.
"The growth in the mobile subscriber base is on the back of a rapidly proliferating rural market, lower handset costs, and low tariff rates in the Indian market," said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner. "Rural telephony will continue to trigger growth and is expected to grow fourfold during the forecast period. Call rates have further dropped to about 1.5 cents per minute narrowing the gap with fixed-line rates. These factors along with an increasing competitive landscape will fuel market growth and encourage the adoption of wireless services in the rural and semi urban provinces of India."
Cellular market penetration is projected to increase from 19.8 percent in 2007 to 60.7 percent in 2012 (see Table 1). Gartner analysts said this growth could be primarily attributed to the increasing focus on the rural market, local consumer durable and electronic companies entering the domestic mobile handset segment, and lower handset prices. Vendors will continue to focus on sub-25$ handsets to capture market share.
The Indian mobile connection market continues to be dominated by prepaid subscribers. Prepaid connections accounted for more than 89 percent of all mobile connections in 2007 and are expected to grow to more than 92 percent of the connection base by 2012. The total services revenue for prepaid connections is expected to grow at 18.9 percent CAGR for the period 2008 - 2012 and the total services revenue for postpaid connections is expected to grow at 15 percent CAGR during the same forecast period. By 2012, the prepaid subscriber base will cross 683 million and postpaid subscriber base will exceed 53 million subscribers.
The churn rate in India is 41.0 percent (2008), and despite a maturing market the ratio is expected to go up to 49 percent in 2012.
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