- Country rankings remain unchanged compared to the last quarter, as the economies became self sustaining
- US, China and Germany continue to reign at 1st, 2nd & 3rd ranks respectively
Capgemini Consulting, the global strategy and transformation consulting brand of the Capgemini Group, announced figures from the second edition of its Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index*, which sees continued growth in world trade volume. This Index tracks trade by quarter, based on the latest available official data from national agencies of the 23 Top countries (including India) in the global trade arena. Figures revealed growth of 8.5 percent in worldwide trade (the import and export of goods and services worldwide) in Q4 2009, following near-identical growth levels in Q3 2009. This points to a similar level of growth of this leading indicator for world economic health into 2010, still driven by increasing domestic consumption levels to compensate for less Government stimulus.
Key Trade-related Trends/Facts for India
- India's border administration meets needs of importers and exporters, particularly with government initiatives on computerization of cargo clearance and EDI
- The Indian economy is recovering, witnessing a 3% growth in the fourth quarter, marginally close to its previous quarter growth
- Indian exports gained on the back of strong growth in manufacturing, attracting high level of foreign investment
For Q4 2009, the Index reveals that:
- In the US, total trade grew by 9 percent in Q4 2009, aided by a relatively weak dollar to give the country its second straight quarter of trade growth;
- China became the world's biggest goods exporter in 2009, with a jump of 11 percent in its exports in Q4 2009 compared with Q3 2009, while Brazil achieved a strong growth in the trade of goods driven by agro-exports;
- German exports in the fourth quarter of 2009 rose by 3.5 percent as compared to the same period the previous year (Q4 2008), though household consumption declined, indicating that the recovery was export-driven;
- France's foreign trade rebounded by 3.08 percent in Q4 2009 as compared to Q4 2008; however, full-year exports declined by around 20 percent of its 2008 levels;
- BRIC countries (except for India) witnessed an improvement in their domestic consumption, while European economies experienced a crunch in domestic spending. For example, China experienced an enormous domestic stimulus in the form of easy credit and heavy infrastructure spending and Brazil benefited from government tax breaks and an increase in consumer spending as Brazil's domestic market grew.
Based on the current available data, Capgemini Consulting expects that in Q1 2010, growth of global trade levels will continue at similar levels but sees the following major risks for the near-term global trade outlook.
- Global economies may struggle to remain self-sustaining in the post-government stimulus era
- China's ambitious growth path may not be sustainable after the withdrawal of its crisis-mode policies
"Global trade flows in Q4 2009 have continued at the same growth rate as in Q3 2009 which is a clear indicator that the revival of the world economy is becoming more stable," explained Roy Lenders, Vice President, Supply Chain Management at Capgemini Consulting. "However, domestic consumption levels are still not strong in most developed economies which are a clear signal that the world economy is not yet able to stand on its own feet without the aid of government stimulus plans. The big question for 2010 will be whether domestic consumption will start growing again fast enough to counter declining government stimulus volumes."
Salil Parekh - CEO, Financial Services, India and Asia Pacific said, "The Indian economy is recovering steadily, witnessing a 3% growth in the fourth quarter, marginally close to its previous quarter growth. India ranks 15th in Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index this quarter. As growth recovers, we will see India steadily climb up the rankings"
*About the Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index
The Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index is calculated for the 23 countries with the highest levels of global trade, assessing changes in competitive position of each country individually. The Index tracks trade by quarter, based on the latest available official data from national agencies. The latest version of the Index covers the period October to December 2009. The Index tracks four sub indicators for each country:
- Total trade, including both imports and exports
- Q-o-Q growth in trade
- Foreign markets for goods produced in a country
- Domestic market
The index will be updated and published each quarter to reflect developments in global trade flows. Because of the time lag in the availability of official trade data, data from Q4 2009 is used to publish the indicator in the beginning of Q2 2010. In addition, each Index also publicizes an early indicator for the subsequent quarter based on data that is already published at that moment in time by some of the 23 countries.
The Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index is also supported by: Holland International Distribution Council (HIDC)
- Global Supply Chain Council in China and India
- Supply Chain Movement
- Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals' (CSCMP) Supply Chain Quarterly
About Capgemini
Capgemini, one of the world's foremost providers of consulting, technology and outsourcing services, enables its clients to transform and perform through technologies. Capgemini provides its clients with insights and capabilities that boost their freedom to achieve superior results through a unique way of working, the Collaborative Business ExperienceTM. The Group relies on its global delivery model called Rightshore®, which aims to get the right balance of the best talent from multiple locations, working as one team to create and deliver the optimum solution for clients. Present in more than 30 countries, Capgemini reported 2009 global revenues of EUR 8.4 billion and employs 90,000 people worldwide.
More information is available at www.capgemini.com.
Capgemini Consulting is the Global Strategy and Transformation Consulting brand of the Capgemini Group,specializing in advising and supporting organizations in transforming their business, from the development of innovative strategy through to execution, with a consistent focus on sustainable results. Capgemini Consulting proposes to leading companies and governments a fresh approach which uses innovative methods, technology and the talents of over 4,000 consultants world-wide.
For more information: www.capgemini.com/consulting
Rightshore ® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini
About Capgemini India
Capgemini in India is over 22,000 people strong across 7 cities (Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Chennai, Pune and Delhi). A pioneer for the IT industry, Capgemini has over 40 years of global expertise collaborating with leading corporations and now brings the Consulting, Technology and Outsourcing experience to India. With dedicated teams to service the local markets, Capgemini has strong domain experience to assist clients across the Government and Public Sector, Energy and Utilities, Manufacturing, Telecom and Financial Services sectors and help them advance in their respective industries. Please visit www.in.capgemini.com win for more details on how we can help.
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