At the close of voting today, President Barack Obama will most likely face a new Congress where Republicans control not only the House of Representatives but the Senate as well.
That's a vast change. He started his presidency with Democrats controlling both houses of Congress, but in 2010, in the middle of his first term, his party lost the House of Representatives in a wave of very conservative Republican tea party victories and backlash against the president's health care overhaul, widely called "Obamacare."
Obama's sagging approval ratings a few points above 40 percent have been a major drag on Democrats in Senate races, with most of them declining presidential appearances on the campaign trail. Hurting Democrats as well is the quirk of US elections this year the mid-point of Obama's second term where many incumbent Democrats or those vying for seats held by retiring Democrats are running in states such as Arkansas and Montana that voted heavily for Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential contest.
If Republicans dominate in the Senate races, Obama likely will hear the death knell ring for pushing major Democratic- backed legislation through Congress for the final two years of his presidency. But he's already had almost no success with Congress since the 2010 elections when Republicans gained an unassailable majority in the House.
But Republicans, if in control of both houses of Congress, will be under severe pressure to govern, to get things done rather than just block Obama's agenda. Republicans will be looking toward the 2016 presidential contest and eager to show they can get things done, to pass measures that Obama will feel obliged to sign into law.
They also know that they could easily lose the Senate in 2016 when their incumbents who rode the Republican wave into office in 2010 face re-election. Republicans will be in much the same place as Democrats this year, fighting to stay in office in Democratic-leaning states such as Illinois and Pennsylvania. Moreover, a presidential election contest is likely to boost turnout among minority and young voters who favor Democrats.
And with Republicans looking to have just a two- to three seat majority in the Senate, 52 to 53 of the 100 seats, they will find it hard to assemble the 60 votes needed to overcome Senate procedural rules to pass legislation let alone override a presidential veto which requires a two-thirds majority, or 66 votes.
