The EU will announce climate change targets for 2030 next week but sharp differences over priorities and an unwillingness to take the lead while global rivals hang back may result in a modest compromise deal.
The 2020 programme is widely judged a success but some argue this means the European Union can now actually ease up to focus on a struggling economy while others want a more ambitious package to keep the momentum going.
European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso will unveil the new package on Wednesday, ahead of a March EU leaders summit, and is also expected to propose new rules on the controversial 'fracking' extraction of shale gas.
Barroso will also address ways to boost the EU's carbon dioxide emissions market, meant to help combat global warming but which has so far disappointed.
The current 20-20-20 EU programme is based on a binding 20 per cent cut in CO2 emissions by 2020, compared with 1990 levels.
Member states are also supposed to source 20 per cent of their energy from renewables and achieve a 20 per cent energy efficiency gain by the same date.
The European Parliament's environment committee wants a more ambitious and binding 40-30-40 package, but such targets are opposed by those who insist that national governments should decide their country's energy mix, not the EU.
EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard meanwhile backs the CO2 reduction target of 40 per cent.
"That implies an additional but not excessive effort," said one source close to the negotiations ahead of Wednesday's formal announcement.
By end-2012, the EU had cut CO2 emissions by 18 per cent, putting it on course for perhaps 24 per cent by 2020.
Perversely, this success takes some of the pressure off for a 40 per cent target on the view the EU is already doing more than its fair share while competitors such as China and India lag behind.
EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger and Industry Commissioner Antonio Tajani are ready to accept a 35 per cent reduction target, sources said.
"Nothing has been decided yet," said one source while another said a figure of 38 per cent was on the table.
If the CO2 reduction target is 40 per cent, then renewables might be fixed at 27 per cent; if the cut is 35 per cent, renewables could be 25 per cent, the source close to the negotiations said.
"Renewables have become a bargaining chip," the source said, with many also opposed to their being made a binding target.
