A surge for populist and far-right parties in Italy's election could result in a hung parliament with a right-wing alliance likely to win the most votes but no majority after a campaign dominated by anger against immigration.
The projections based on early results on Monday also showed the far-right League party ahead of media mogul Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (Go Italy) party within the right-wing coalition in yesterday's vote.
That raises the prospect of League leader Matteo Salvini, who has promised to shut down Roma camps, deport hundreds of thousands of migrants and tackle the "danger" of Islam, becoming Italy's next prime minister.
The eurosceptic, anti-establishment Five Star Movement, which has drawn support from Italians fed up with traditional parties and a lack of economic opportunity, was predicted to come second to the coalition.
The boost for far-right and populist parties has drawn comparisons to Britain's vote to leave the European Union and the rise of US President Donald Trump.
"The European Union is going to have a bad night," Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Front, tweeted.
Brexit firebrand Nigel Farage congratulated the Five Star Movement, his allies in the European Parliament, "for topping the poll" as Italy's biggest single party.
Resentment at the hundreds of thousands of migrant arrivals in Italy in recent years fired up the campaign, along with frustration about social inequalities.
"These are historic results," Giancarlo Giorgetti, deputy head of the League, told reporters in Milan.
Alessandro Di Battista of the Five Star Movement, said: "Everyone is going to have to come and speak to us".
The ruling centre-left Democratic Party, which has struggled to get across its pro-European message of gradual economic recovery, was left trailing.
"This is a very clear defeat for us," Michele Martina, a minister in the outgoing government, told reporters.
Andrea Marcucci, one of the party's lawmakers, said: "The populists have won and the Democratic Party has lost".
The projections by public broadcaster Rai showed the right-wing alliance winning 35.5 percent of the vote, including 15.8 per cent for the League and 14.5 percent for Forza Italia, with the Five Star Movement at 32.5 percent and the centre-left at 23.1 per cent.
If no party or coalition wins an overall majority, the projected results leave Italy with few options.
One is a an "anti-system" post-election pact between the Five Star Movement and the League -- a prospect that has spooked foreign investors and European capitals.
The other would be a minority Five Star government, which could prove highly unstable. A third option would be a temporary government and new elections.
Maurizio Molinari, editor of La Stampa daily, said the victory of "anti-system forces" was a first for Europe.
In L'Espresso weekly's online edition Marco Damilano wrote: "On the night of March 4, the winners are (Five Star Movement leader Luigi) Di Maio and Salvini".
"And there are two catastrophic losers: Berlusconi, the old man on his last lap, and his young heir (Democratic Party leader) Matteo Renzi."
Berlusconi, a flamboyant three-time former prime minister, cannot hold elected office because of a fraud conviction but has put forward European Parliament President Antonio Tajani as his prime ministerial nominee.
The billionaire, who won his first election in 1994, has returned to the limelight at the age of 81 despite a career overshadowed by sex scandals and legal woes.
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