The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has predicted normal northeast monsoon in Kerala and South India during October-December season this year.
Above normal rainfall is likely over most part of Sri Lanka, Maldives and eastern parts of Myanmar during this period.
However, below normal rainfall is likely over southern parts of Myanmar and some areas at the foothills of Himalayas, according to the consensus statement made at the end of the 15th session of SASCOF, which met here.
Normal rainfall is likely over remaining areas of the region.
During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperature are likely, over most part of the region, a government press release said.
According to the release, currently neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillations (ENSO) conditions are prevailing in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.
These parameters, which are known to influence the climate over South Asia, are likely to continue at their current level during the October to December season.
The consensus climate outlook for the 2019 October-December season over South Asia has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions influencing the South Asian climate and seasonal forecasts from different climate models around the world.
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who inaugurated the main session of SASCOF on Climate Service User Forum (CSUF) on Wednesday here, said regular patterns of rain that are known to two generations in Kerala have drastically changed during the last three years.
Successive natural calamities like Ockhi, heavy floods of 2018, extreme rainfall event of August 2019 are evidence of this, he said.
Vijayan suggested that the scientists should speak in a language that can be understood by the common man as well as administrators.
"Although there are several limitations, it was time that the meteorological agencies issue predictions in time and they should use the service of proven private agencies also," he said.
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Dr M Mohapatra said observing the pattern and pattern change in South East monsoon and North East monsoon in the South Asian region was very important for the economic and agricultural sectors of the region.
Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Chief Scientist Dr Sreenivasan, M C Dathan, Scientific advisor to the Chief Minister, AnahiHovsepyan of World Meteorological organisation, Francis Colledge, Met office, UK and Dr D S Pai, Coordinator, SAFCON-15 attended the inaugural function.
The forum meeting was attended by several experts from eight south Asian countries-- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
According to the release, the forum deliberated on emerging climatic features that are known to influence the climate of the region such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean.
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