The economic growth is expected to be 7.5 per cent in 2015-16, lower than advance estimate of 7.6 per cent by the Central Statistics Office, India Ratings and Research said today.
"The FY16 real gross value addition (GVA) will be achieved as per the advance estimate of the CSO; however GDP growth may miss the estimate by 10 basis point," the ratings agency said in a release.
The agency said it expects the growth rate for last quarter of 2015-16 at 7.4 per cent, which translates into the 2015-16 GDP growth of 7.5 per cent.
"The 2015-16 GDP growth is likely to have been marginally lower than the advance estimate of 7.6 per cent," it said.
Ind-Ra notes that any change in the fourth quarter of 2014-15 or the annual 2014-15 growth by the CSO, will have an impact on the quarterly and annual growth estimates.
Ind-Ra believes that the agricultural GVA growth can surprise positively, despite the second consecutive year of sub-par monsoons, mainly due to the unseasonal rainfall during the last quarter of 2014-15.
The growth in industrial GVA during the fourth quarter if 2015-16 is likely to have declined from the previous quarter level, however Ind-Ra estimates it to have been better than year-ago period.
The main support to the industrial performance is driven
by the strong performance of the electricity sector. The construction sector is likely to have performed better in the last quarter of 2015-16, the agency said.
The cement production grew by 11.4 per cent, steel production was flat in the last quarter but its performance improved from the contraction in previous quarter, it said.
Leading indicators of the service sector - namely air and port cargo and petroleum consumption points towards a stable GVA growth for the service sector.
On the expenditure side, the private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is the largest component of the GDP. As per the CSOs advance estimates, it was estimated to have grown by 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.
