Economic inequality, societal polarisation and growing environmental dangers are the top risks facing the world over the next 10 years while India alone can see this year a staggering 93 per cent holding jobs without social security benefits, says a report.
"Trends such as rising income inequality and societal polarisation triggered political change in 2016 and could exacerbate global risks in 2017 if urgent action is not taken," the World Economic Forums (WEF) said in its Global Risks Report 2017 released here today.
The annual study further noted that key drivers of these risks can be arrested or reversed through building more inclusive societies, for which international cooperation and long-term thinking will be vital.
"Climate change ranks alongside income inequality and societal polarisation as a top trend for 2017, with all five environmental risks featuring for the first time among the most likely and most impactful risks before the world," it said.
The report, released by Geneva-based WEF days ahead of its annual Davos meet of the world's rich and powerful next week, also identified these dangers as the top three trends that will shape global developments for the next 10 years.
Collaborative action by world leaders will be urgently needed to avert further hardship and volatility in the coming decade, it added.
Regarding India, the report said the country has significant potential to reap a demographic dividend, but its limited capacity to create employment poses a serious challenge.
"Between 1991 and 2013 the size of the working-age population increased by 300 million, yet the number of employed only increased by 140 million. By 2017, a staggering 93 per cent of Indians will hold jobs without social security benefits.
"Solutions are being sought, as the government launches three mega social security schemes - accident coverage, life insurance and pensions," it added.
On growing income inequality, the report said, "In India, the top 1 per cent grew its share of the country's wealth from almost 37 per cent in 2000 to 53 per cent in 2016."
Talking about 'rising nationalism' in various countries, WEF said civil society actors often challenge decision-makers on issues tied to security and identity, such as the response to terrorism or the refugee crisis, or the treatment of minorities.
"Nationalist sentiment has fuelled the closing of civic space in an attempt to reduce such criticism. The argument against foreign funding also has nationalistic undercurrents -- some non-governmental organisations that take foreign funding have been accused of being unpatriotic or anti- development," it said, while observing that such accusations have been made in several countries, including India, Pakistan, and Malawi.
In this year's survey, 750 experts assessed 30 global
risks, as well as 13 underlying trends that could amplify them or alter the interconnections between them.
Against a backdrop of mounting political disaffection and disruption across the world, the survey showed that rising income and wealth disparity and increasing polarisation of societies were ranked first and third, respectively, among the underlying trends that will determine global developments in the next ten years.
Similarly, the most interconnected pairing of risks in this year's survey is between high structural unemployment or underemployment and profound social instability.
Noting that the environment dominates the global risks landscape, the survey said that climate change was the number two underlying trend this year.
And for the first time, all five environmental risks in the survey were ranked both high-risk and high-likelihood, with extreme weather events emerging as the single most prominent global risk.
It further found that society was not keeping pace with technological change. Of the 12 emerging technologies examined in the report, experts found artificial intelligence and robotics to have the greatest potential benefits, but also the greatest potential negative effects and the greatest need for better governance.
While the world can point to significant progress in the area of climate change in 2016, with a number of countries, including the US and China, ratifying the Paris Agreement, political change in Europe and North America puts this progress at risk, the WEF said.
How to address the world's most pressing risks will be the subject of discussions at the WEF Annual Meeting 2017 from January 16-20 in Davos, being held under the theme of 'Responsive and Responsible Leadership'.
The WEF said, "In 2013, long before 'post truth' became the 2016 word of the year, Global Risks highlighted the rapid spread of misinformation, observing that trust was being eroded and that better incentives were needed to protect quality-control systems."
The Global Risks Report 2017 has been developed with the support of strategic partners Marsh and McLennan Companies and Zurich Insurance Group, WEF said.
Its academic advisers included the Oxford Martin School (University of Oxford), the National University of Singapore, the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center (University of Pennsylvania).
