Militant groups that conducted the Delhi and Mumbai terror attacks continue to operate in Pakistan posing a strategic conundrum for India how to respond to future terrorism emanating from that country, two noted US defence analysts on South Asia have said.
Previous governments led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh faced this conundrum in January 2002 and November 2008, respectively, following the attacks by Pakistan-based militants in Delhi and Mumbai, George Perkovich and Toby Dalton - wrote in an article for The Washington Quarterly.
Both chose to exercise restraint rather than strike back, they said.
The groups that conducted the Delhi and Mumbai attacks continue to operate in Pakistan, the two scholars said, adding that it is reasonable to assume that the Narendra Modi-led government, like its predecessors, will face a major attack on Indian soil attributed to such groups.
Perkovich and Dalton said Indian decision makers face a strategic conundrum: how to deter and/ or respond to future terrorism emanating from Pakistan.
"The dilemmas are manifold: punitive action may assuage the desire of an angry public for revenge, but too heavy a response may motivate actors in Pakistan to escalate attacks in India; while a weak riposte is unlikely to convince Pakistan's civilian and military leaders to alter their long-standing embrace of conflict against India by proxy," they said.
As the new Indian Government ponders over the various options in case of a major terrorist strike emanating from across the border, the two experts said a more symmetrical and covert operations would yield a better ratio of risk to effectiveness for India.
Such an approach does not mean that India lacks ways to punish Pakistan and motivate it to demobilise groups that threaten to perpetrate terrorism in India.
"There are many ways to make Pakistani military leaders conclude that the cohesion, security, and progress of their own country will be further jeopardised if they fail to act vigorously to prevent terrorism against India. Limited, precision air strikes are not India's best option now or for the foreseeable future," the two wrote.
"Modi's self-styled reputation as a tough man and strong leader- borne out by his decision to disproportionately retaliate to Pakistani shelling across the Line of Control in Kashmir in fall 2014 -increases the perception that, this time, the Indian government will choose a military response," they said.
