"It will be a normal monsoon this year," Earth Sciences Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh announced at a packed press conference here.
He said there was 47 per cent probability of a normal monsoon as against 24 per cent probability of below normal rains this season.
"Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 99 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of five per cent," Deshmukh said.
The LPA for the country as a whole is pegged at 89 cm which is the the average rainfall for the 50-year period from 1951-2000.
Monsoon is crucial for the kharif crops such as rice, soyabean, cotton and maize because almost 60 per cent of the farm land in the country is rainfed.
Agriculture sector will maintain its growth momentum of around 3.5 per cent and may surpass it, Abhijeet Sen, Member, Planning Commission told PTI.
India is estimated to have harvested a record 252.56 million tonnes of foodgrains in the 2011-12 crop year as against 244.78 million tonnes in the previous year.
