 "India Inc M&A deals down 33% at $20 bn in 2015")
Corporate India's boardrooms seem to have turned little quieter this year on dealmaking with the value of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) dipping to $20 billion, but experts foresee a bounce back in 2016.
The value of deals has dipped more than 40 per cent from $33 billion clocked in the previous year 2014. Consultants and analysts are anticipating deals worth more than $30 billion in 2016.
Experts believe that the much-needed impetus to M&A deal activity can come from the changes in the country's regulatory framework such as a new bankruptcy law, faster pace of approvals and the relaxed FDI norms for many sectors, including multi-brand retail, telecom, insurance and defence.
According to global consultancy major PwC, M&A activity by value in 2015 stood at around $20 billion, as opposed to almost $33 billion in 2014.
The fall in deal value, can be attributed to lesser number of domestic deals, stretched corporate balance sheets and costlier foreign assets, largely due to a depreciating rupee.
In 2014, domestic deal volumes had gone up significantly at around $19 billion with a number of big ticket transactions such as Sun Pharma-Ranbaxy and Kotak Bank-ING Vysya deals among others, but the case was different this year as it saw only $7.3 billion of domestic M&A transactions.
Though both inbound and outbound M&As witnessed an uptrend in 2015, they could not make up for the sharp fall in domestic deal activities.
According to global deal tracking firm Mergermarket, technology firms attracted an unprecedented level of activity in 2015 with 80 deals compared to just 45 in 2014, and with the value increasing to $5.1 billion as against $5 billion.
Other sectors that were highly active include transport and energy, mining and utilities.
Going ahead, the pipeline is looking strong for 2016.
"In 2015, inbound deals dominated the Indian M&A landscape with interest coming from US, German and Canadian bidders. As the country's economy shows slow but steady growth, this trend is likely to continue as companies seek growth in one of the largest and fastest growing Asian-Pacific markets," according to Kirsty Wilson, Global Research Editor and Anjali Piramal, Global Head of Content Development at Mergermarket.
Sectorwise, energy deals are likely to continue with large companies like Finland-based Fortum looking to reinvest in higher-risk energy markets after a series of divestments.
Financial services is a sector which has been seeing some momentum, especially in insurance and micro-finance. This is likely to continue next year, as per Mergermarket.
According to Vikram Hosangady - Partner and Head, Deal Advisory at KPMG in India, "The 20-month old government has undertaken several initiatives to make India an attractive investment destination with the Prime Minister having travelled to several countries garnering interest among foreign investors.
The 'Make in India' initiative that seeks to convert India into a global manufacturing hub has gained significant visibility among overseas investors."
Moreover, the measures announced by the Reserve Bank for building up currency reserves and curtailing inflation did play a key role in helping the country tide through the external uncertainties, Hosangady added.
Echoing similar sentiments, PwC India Partner & Leader - Private Equity and Transaction Services, Sanjeev Krishan said M&A numbers are expected to be much better in 2016.
"I believe that regulation changes like new bankruptcy law will drive another wave of domestic consolidation in the Indian market. Likewise as the Government continues to focus on creating a facilitating business environment, inbound investors are expected to start looking at India positively and this should help."
Krishan believes outbound M&A pickup may take a little longer, but on an overall basis he was "very positive that overall M&A activity in 2016 would be near the 2014 levels."
Sectorwise, infrastructure, e-commerce, pharmaceutical, healthcare and technology are key sectors that will gain the attention of investors.
With regard to inbound deal activities, the investors will most likely hail from the US, UK and Japan as they have both the deal appetite and capacity to take advantage of India's huge growth potential, experts said.
"With inflation in control and GDP growth being revised to now end higher than anticipated, all the necessary ingredients seem to be in place for growth in deal activity as well," Grant Thornton India LLP partner Prashant Mehra said.
Mehra further added that the recent FDI norms and the much awaited GST will perhaps be a game changer and will further accelerate the deal activity from an inbound investment, domestic M&A and PE perspective.
