India,which is aggressively pushing its policy of adding renewable energy to its energy profile, is likely to obtain 63 per cent of its installed power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources, including hydro-electricity, by 2029-30, according to a new report.
This would significantly exceed the countrys Paris agreement target of a 40 per cent share of installed power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said this in a release,quoting the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) report.
The report projects India would overachieve its Paris agreement targets by 60 per cent, the release said.
The CEA conducted the study to estimate the optimal generation capacity mix under various technology options, including the issues of intermittency associated with renewable energy sources and other constraints to meet the projected peak electricity demand and electrical energy requirement in year 2029-30.
The report estimates that growth in new installed power capacity would lead renewables to generate close to 44 per cent of all electricity consumed in India in 2029-30, the release said.
The IEEFA noted that the CEA analysis predicts moderate growth in increased coal capacity (from net end-of-life coal plant closures), while gas and biomass growth is expected to be negligible.
The CEA makes a base forecast for thermal power capacity of 291 GW by 2030, a clear expansion from the 225 GW operating as of March 2019.
But the CEAs bullish conclusion is that thermal capacity would drop from 64 per cent to just 35 per cent of total installed capacity in only 11 years, it said.
The CEA models also take into account that India would need 34 GW/136 GWh of battery energy storage systems (BESS) by 2030 to balance the grid reliability and stability needs of 440 GW of variable renewable energy capacity, supported by 73 GW of hydro and 10 GW of biomass, the release said.
In view of the rate of technology change and cost deflation in batteries, this ambitious forecast could prove to be prescient.
The CEAs optimal capacity generation mix estimates are based on projected demand obtained through Indias 19th Electricity Power Survey (EPS).
The projections are adjusted to include estimated contributions from solar rooftop generation.
India dominates the list of countries with the most polluted cities on earth.
As per World Bank estimates, air pollution costs are equivalent to 8.5 per cent of GDP.
India is also facing extreme and growing water shortage in major cities.
Transition to clean energy can help the country achieve its twin objectives of strong economic growth and sustainability, said energy economist Vibhuti Garg, who wrote the IEEFA brief.
Garg noted that the momentum to build more renewable energy (RE) capacity should not only be reflected at the central planning level, but also integrated and co-ordinated with the plans of state governments.
Gujarat is a front runner, with the state announcing plans to increase power generation capacity from renewable sources to 30GW in the next three years.
IEEFA notes that adoption of grid-scale energy storage technologies is critical for large-scale integration of renewable energy sources.
With advancement in technology, the cost of battery energy storage systems has been decreasing at a fast pace, down 30 per cent in 2018 alone.
India needs to invest its technical and financial resources to create energy storage capacity.
Renewable energy will further aid in addressing the issue of air pollution and water stress, as well as help mitigate Indias chronic over-reliance on fossil fuel imports, which cause inflation and erode the value of the rupee, Garg said.
Disclaimer: No Business Standard Journalist was involved in creation of this content
