Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has revised India's sugar output downward by 9 per cent to 21.3 million tonne for this year, on likely production fall in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
ISMA in its first estimate had projected the sugar output at 23.4 million tonne for the ongoing 2016-17 marketing year (October-September) as against 25.1 million tonnes last year.
The industry body's second estimate is however lower than the government's projection of 22.5 million tonnes.
In a statement, ISMA said sugar production situation for 2016-17 was reviewed in the committee's meeting held today.
"ISMA has revised its sugar production estimates for 2016-17 downwards from 23.4 million tonnes of first advance estimates made in September 2016, to 21.3 million tonnes now," the industry body said.
The factors like yield per hectare, drawl of cane by sugar mills, sugar recovery and water availability in reservoirs have been duly considered while making the revised analysis, it said.
ISMA said it decided to revise estimates considering some sugar mills have closed operations in drought-hit areas in Maharashtra and Karnataka, and field reports that cane supply in these two states is lower than earlier expectations.
Besides, it took into account reports of lower yields per hectare of cane and slightly lower sugar recoveries.
As per the ISMA's latest data, sugar production has touched 10.48 MT till January 15 of the 2016-17 marketing year, down 5 per cent from year-ago period.
"Now that sugar mills, in the drought affected areas, have started closing down, the difference from last year will be higher as the season progresses," ISMA noted.
The industry body also said that Uttar Pradesh is reporting better sugarcane crush. Therefore, the state may see marginal rise in sugarcane production as compared to the earlier estimates.
The area under high yielding and high sugar recovery variety 'Co0238' is significantly more than last year because of which the production in UP is expected to be higher than last year, it added.
According to ISMA, the opening stock of sugar at the start
of this year was 7.75 million tonnes.
With lower production of 21.3 MT and likely sale of 24.2 MT, the closing stock is estimated to be at 4.85 MT at the end of 2016-17 marketing year.
The closing stock of 4.85 MT can meet sugar demand of two and half months period, it said.
Next year, ISMA said, the sugar production in Maharashtra and Karnataka should be back to normal as field reports indicate increase in sowing of sugarcane. There will be surplus sugar production as compared to domestic requirement next year.
"Therefore, as per the above estimates and calculations, there is no reason to feel that there is any shortage of sugar in the country or need to import any sugar," ISMA noted.
