As the country prepares to pull out of Afghanistan next year, a US military report here has warned that some of the Pakistan-based militant groups like LeT, backed by "elements" in Pakistani security establishments, will "reorient to and invest more broadly in the conflict in Kashmir" post the 2014 American drawdown.
The report noted that because of the US troops presence in Afghanistan post 2001, the conflict there has functioned as an opportunity, and also potentially as a distraction for some of the Pakistan-based militant groups.
While the number of insurgent attacks in Afghanistan has generally risen since 2008 (with seasonal ebbs and flows and yearly fluctuations), the level of militant-linked violence in Jammu and Kashmir -the theatre where many Pakistan-based groups have historically been active - has declined from levels seen during the late 1990s and early 2000s, US Military Academy in West Point here said in a report.
"Once the primary battleground for jihad in South Asia; over the last decade the fight in Kashmir just hasn't been as relevant for jihadist actors.
"If history and the area to which Pakistani militants (aided by the state) turned their operational attention after the Soviets departed Afghanistan is any guide, the reduction of the US footprint in Afghanistan in 2014 could help to change that," said the report titled 'The Fighters of Lashkar-e-Taiba: Recruitment, Training, Deployment and Death'.
The comprehensive report is result of a multi-year research effort conducted by a lead team of five eminent authors, including C Christine Fair, Don Rassler and Anirban Ghosh, and is based on a study of over 900 biographies of the deceased LeT militants.
It said that it is difficult to predict the directional priorities of Pakistan-based militant groups after the US reduces its role in Afghanistan, especially in light of the internal security challenges faced by Pakistan and the state's own shifting threat priorities.
However, "Historical precedent suggests that some of these militant groups will reorient to and invest more broadly in the conflict in Kashmir," the report said.
