The likely swing of the OBC and tribal votes and the effectiveness of the Congress' bid to build the poll narrative on agrarian distress seems to be the main factors at play in Mahasamund Lok Sabha constituency in Chhattisgarh, which votes on April 18.
Among other factors, the votes of the Sahu community, the traditional vote bank of the BJP and a dominant OBC sub-caste, could tilt the scales in favour of either of the BJP or the Congress, according to poll observers.
In the 2018 assembly polls, in which the Congress ended the BJP's 15-year old rule, the Sahus had largely favoured the Opposition party.
The predominantly agricultural Mahasamund constituency is spread across eight assembly segments, including four in Mahasamund district and two each in Dhamtari and Gariaband districts.
As per demographics, the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) constitute around 51 per cent of total population in this constituency. Other dominant communities are the Scheduled Tribes (STs) and the Scheduled Castes (SCs) which comprise around 29 per cent and 13 per cent of the total voters, respectively.
However, with a share of around 19 per cent, the Sahus form the largest OBC sub-group. Other influential sub-castes are Yadavs and Kurmis.
Well aware of the caste arithmetic, the Congress has fielded party MLA Dhanendra Sahu while the BJP has brought in its former MLA Chunnilal Sahu in place of two-time MP Chandual Sahu.
"If the choice is between Chunnilal and Dhanendra, the latter is more influential," Hemlal Sahu, a farmer from Bhoring village in Mahasamund district, told PTI.
Hemlal, who owns around 2.5 acres of land, said if the BJP manages to retain the seat, it will be purely due to "Modi magic".
He said factors like farm distress and anti-incumbency went against the BJP in the last assembly polls, but also added that a different scenario is emerging as far as the upcoming elections are concerned.
In the general elections held in 2014, BJP's Chandulal Sahu had defeated former chief minister and then Congress strongman Ajit Jogi from Mahasamund. In 2009, he had defeated Motilal Sahu, also of Congress.
Hemlal further said a sizable chunk of the Sahu vote and people from other OBC communities like the Yadavs, Kurmis and Marars had then voted for the BJP whereas tribals and SCs thrown their weight behind Jogi.
Pitambar Nishad, a 19-year-old from Gopalpur village, feels employment is an issue for local youths. However, he also feels that Prime Minister Narendra Modi deserves another chance.
Nishad said he quit studies after completing class 12 last year and started working due to ill health of his father.
"Like me, several other youths in the village left studies and went to Raipur in search of good jobs. Youths neither wanted to take up farming nor they wanted to do small jobs. Employment issue cannot be denied but Modi ji should be given another term," said Nishad who works in a medical store in Tumgaon.
Poll analysts say the Sahus and other OBC communities voted for the Congress in the assembly polls apparently due to the party's promise of waiving farm loans and the higher MSP for paddy procurement.
However, Sushil Trivedi, an analyst and former commissioner of the Chhattisgarh State Election Commission, believes the Sahus will not be the only deciding factor this time.
"Elections cannot be won only on the basis of a caste equation. As both the leading parties have fielded candidates from the same community, the Sahu vote will be divided this time. It will be interesting to see how other OBC communities and tribals vote in Mahasamund, which is likely to influence poll outcome," Trivedi said.
A total of 18 candidates are in the fray in Mahasamund constituency which will vote in the second phase. The state, which has 11 Lok Sabha seats, will vote in three phases.
Among 16,37,002 eligible voters in Mahasamund, 8,24,219 electors are women and 8,12,761 are men. There are 22 third gender voters.
Earlier, former Union minister and Congress stalwart late Vidyacharan Shukla had represented the seat six times.
The constituency had also sent high-profile leaders like Shyamacharan Shukla (1999), Ajit Jogi (2004) and Pavan Diwan (1991 and 1996) of Congress, and Chandrashekhar Sahu (1998) of the BJP to the Lok Sabha.
Of the eight assembly segments, the Congress represents Mahasamund, Khallari, Saraipali (SC), Basna and Rajim while the BJP has MLAs on Bindranawagarh (ST), Dhamtari and Kurud seats.
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