After impacting the withdrawal of southwest monsoon, cyclonic storm Phailin is likely to delay the onset of northeast monsoon this year.
Although the northeast monsoon starts between mid-October and October 20, MET department has still not declared onset of northeast monsoon. One of the major reasons is that cyclonic storm Phailin obstructed the withdrawal of southwest monsoon winds, which delayed the northeast monsoon winds.
"Unless the southwest monsoon withdraws, the northeast monsoon will not progress," Scientist (Cyclone Warning) with the Meteorological Department, M Mohapatra, said here today.
Since the third week of September, with the successive formation of two low pressure areas and their westward movement across the central parts of the country caused the east-west trough to remain active contributing to above normal rainfall during the period. This development stalled further withdrawal of southwest monsoon.
"To add to this, Phailin struck the eastern coast," he said, adding there could be some respite as monsoon withdrawal process would resume by October 17 after which, northeast monsoon could start.
Four southern states receive rainfall because of northeast monsoon that includes Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka. Northeast monsoon starts in October and continues until December.
Tamil Nadu gets 48 per cent of its rains due to northeast monsoon winds. Its coastal districts get 60 per cent of the rain due to it.
According to the MET department, Tamil Nadu is likely to get 438 mm of rainfall, Rayalseema 219 mm, coastal Andhra Pradesh 327 mm, south interior Karnataka 209 mm and Kerala 408 mm of rainfall this year due to northeast monsoon.
The MET department said the northeast monsoon is likely to be normal this year, but Tamil Nadu is expected to receive above normal rainfall.
