Stating that it does not expect credit metrics to deteriorate in 2014-15, India Ratings today said stability in the rupee is one of the most important factors essential for corporate turnaround during the fiscal.
"We do not expect corporate credit metrics for FY15 to deteriorate from FY14 levels...Currency stability (is) key to corporate turnaround in FY15," it said in a note.
The agency said it had given a positive credit outlook to eight of the 22 sectors covered by it, which are expected to do better during the fiscal, as compared to the previous fiscal.
It said the sectors expected to do better in FY15 account for 11.8 per cent of the banking system's loans, while those with a stable outlook amount to 28.04 per cent of the banking industry exposure and those with a negative outlook are at 23.2 per cent.
The agency stressed that the exposure to sectors with stable outlook has increased from 26.3 per cent in the year ago, while the same to negative outlook sectors has decreased from 30.7 per cent in the year ago period.
On the rupee front, it said 70 per cent of the aggregate balance sheet debt of BSE 500 companies, excluding those in the banking and financial services space, belongs to net importers and every one percentage point depreciation in the rupee causes a 1.3 per cent margin compression, affecting the credit profiles.
Estimating that the rupee will be trading at the 57-58 levels by the end of the fiscal, it said 22 per cent of the 'investment' grade corporates may suffer a rating downgrade if the rupee shoots up to over 60 against the dollar for a sustained period of time.
However, there will not be any defaults by these corporates, it said, adding that the defaults will set in only if the rupee breaches the 65 level against the USD.
The rupee, which has gained a lot of lost ground in the last few weeks on a surge in inflows, closed 4 paise higher at 59.15 against the dollar at the end of the trading session today.
