Scientists simulate climate of Game of Thrones

Winter is coming! Scientists have used a climate model to simulate and explore the climate of the world of the Game of Thrones.

Researchers, including those from the University of Bristol in the UK, show that The Wall, where the land of Westeros is guarded from the White Walkers, has a climate in winter similar to that of Lapland in Finland.

They suggest that Casterly Rock, the stronghold of the scheming Lannisters, has a climate similar to that of Houston, Texas in the US, and Changsha in China.

The wind speeds and directions predicted by the climate model explain phenomena such as the dominance of the seas by the Iron Fleet, the likely attack plans of invading dragon hordes from Essos, and the trading routes between Westeros and the Free cities across the Narrow Sea.
 

The temperatures predicted by the climate model indicate the likely hibernation zones of White Walkers in summer.

Researchers show that the extended seasons can be explained by a 'tumbling' of the tilt of the spinning axis of the planet as it orbits the Sun, in such a way that that the same Hemisphere always tilts towards the Sun.

They also modelled the global warming that would occur if concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were to be doubled (due to increases in carbon dioxide and methane emissions from dragons and the excessive use of wildfire).

Their estimate of 2.1 degrees Celsius global warming for a doubling of carbon dioxide (the "Climate Sensitivity" of the world of Game of Thrones) is within the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 'real' Earth, of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius.

"Because climate models are based on fundamental scientific processes, they are able not only to simulate the climate of the modern Earth, but can also be easily adapted to simulate any planet, real or imagined, so long as the underlying continental positions and heights, and ocean depths are known," said Professor Dan Lunt, from the University of Bristol.

"This work is a bit of fun, but it does have a serious side. Climate models simulate real physical processes which operate in both cooling and warming climates," Professor Carrie Lear from Cardiff University added.