Global carbon dioxide emissions may be dropping ever so slightly this year, spurred by a dramatic plunge in Chinese pollution, according to a surprising new study by a scientific team that regularly tracks heat-trapping pollution.
The unexpected dip could either be a temporary blip or true hope that the world is about to turn the corner on carbon pollution as climate talks continue in Paris, said the authors of a study published today in the journal Nature Climate Change. One skeptical scientist offered a USD 10,000 bet that world emissions will keep rising. Still, some leaders cheered the study.
"That shouldn't tell us we don't need to do anything, but that shows there is action," Janos Pasztor, the United Nations Assistant Secretary General for climate change, told The Associated Press at the Paris climate talks. "Things are going in the right direction. All we need is a strong agreement."
Using preliminary data through October 2015, the international team of emission trackers project that worldwide emissions this year will end 200 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (220 million US tons) less than the 35.9 billion metric tons (39.6 billion US tons) they calculated for 2014.
That's a 0.6 per cent decrease, but there's a margin of error so the difference from last year to this could be as big a drop of 1.6 per cent or actually a 0.5 per cent increase, the study said.
The projected global emissions for 2015 calculate to the world spewing on average 68 million kilograms (150 million pounds) of carbon dioxide each minute.
Study authors said this would be the first time global carbon dioxide emissions have dropped, even if only slightly, while the world economy grows. Global emissions fell during the last big recession.
The team's emissions figures for 2014 not projections but hard data show a 0.6 per cent increase from 2013, about 200 million metric tons. That's much lower than previous annual rates. From 2000 to 2009, world heat-trapping gas emissions grew about 3.3 per cent a year and in recent years it was in the 1 to 2.5 per cent range, said study co-author Corinne Le Quere of the University of East Anglia. But it could also be a blip with emissions going right back up, she said.
"We have a mountain (of emissions) in front of us," Le Quere said. "Maybe the mountain is a bit less and steep than we thought. But it's still a mountain."
US Environmental Protection Administrator Gina McCarthy said: "I will take the blip any day; it's much better than saying it's increasing. But I think it may just represent a strategy that will be more long term.
