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Trump-win: Global mkt volatility to impact India for some time

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Press Trust of India Mumbai
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals will safeguard the country's securities market as global volatility is likely to persist in the near term with Donald Trump winning the US presidential race, brokers said.

"While this global market volatility may continue for some time, Fundamentals of Indian economy are only getting better," Motilal Oswal Financial Services CMD Motilal Oswal said, adding that good monsoon and 7th Pay commission has started showing some impact on the economy.

"We think this volatility only gives an opportunity for long-term investors to commit more money to their equity investment," he added.

Noting that global markets have been volatile for the past few weeks, based on US opinion poll results, Angel Broking chairman and MD Dinesh Thakkar said, Trump's victory today has ended the uncertainty even as his policies would be tracked going ahead.
 

"The Indian markets in the last one month have corrected about 5 per cent indicating that Trump's victory is now discounted and focus will now turn towards Fed policy which is due next month," he said

"Though some volatility is expected going ahead, one should not ignore strong domestic consumption story and improving fundamentals. Any further dip should be used to buy quality stocks," he added.

Geojit BNP Paribas chief investment strategist V K Vijayakumar told PTI that focus would be on what the new US President says after the result.

"It would be difficult to put a number to the crash. But 5 to 7 per cent correction can happen. Within the emerging markets, India is likely to be the least affected," he said, advising the investors to stay calm and buy if the market corrects by around 5 per cent.

According to Kotak Securities chief executive Kamlesh Rao, the country's IT sector could remain under pressure in the short run on Trump's speeches favouring restricted entry of skilled labour from overseas with a view to protect jobs in the US.

"Having said all this, the tone of the introductory speech was more welcoming where he did mention working with all nations together though there was a distinct mention of keeping US interests in the mind first. Markets will watch closely now about what the President elect says over," Rao said.

Trump's poll pitch has been centred around protecting the domestic industries in US and reducing off-shoring of jobs; as also on clamping down on immigration.
"An impact of that is likely to come only on the

IT/Software industry where we see some possible negative policy action in coming months/years which may increase the cost of doing business for these companies and shrinking of market," Systematix Shares & Stocks MD Nikhil Khandelwal said.

HDFC Securities managing director and CEO Dhiraj Relli said Trump winning the US Presidential elections could be a mixed bag for India.

"On the one hand, India could get impacted by the ripples caused by the (much feared) policies sought to be implemented by Trump. On the other hand, India could grow as an important ally for US going by his views on China and Middle East," Relli said.

Looking at previous trends, Sanctum Wealth Management CIO Sunil Sharma noted that in almost every case back to 1880, equity markets in the US have risen on news that Republicans win elections and fall when Democrats win.

"This time around as well, a Republican win is likely to lead to massive tax cuts (promise to reduce the US corporate tax rate from 35-15 per cent), and markets love lower taxes," Sharma said.

In a result that stunned the world, Donald Trump was today elected the President crushing strongly-favoured Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, raising questions over US' equations with other countries given his hardline stance on tackling terrorism, immigration and protecting domestic jobs.

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First Published: Nov 09 2016 | 6:42 PM IST

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