If after more than three decades of Chinese growth, Beijing recorded high air pollution levels, then New Delhi achieved the ignominy in much lesser time sans the growth.
In Delhi too, like many other cities, vehicular emissions, road transport in particular, add to the high air pollution levels. Emulating other countries—Chile, Mexico, Ecuador, China—we will restrict the usage of vehicles via a modified odd-even formula, beginning new year. Good intentions blend with desperation to do something, even if we do not know what to do, and a belief pervades that we will learn as we go along, and perhaps stumble upon a solution within a fortnight.
Consensus has it that the solutions like the odd-even ones are short-term. But as long-term thinking is not our wont, the debate over Delhi’s pollution crisis became confined to the proposed formula. The locus did not widen beyond Delhi and did not examine our transportation model as such, if we have one.
In addition to Delhi, not only all our metropolises with a high density of roads but also tier II and III cities—like Patna, Gwalior, Raipur—are excessively polluted. These three cities already rank as the topmost polluted cities in the world after Delhi; 13 out of 20 world’s most polluted cities are from India. The problem will only worsen as urbanisation continues. On the other hand, many of our rural areas are still without road or rail connectivity. In truth, we do not have a transportation policy that addresses our problems.
Transportation is much more than passengers commuting or freight moving from one place to another; it affects economic growth, impacts environment, and impinges on social progress. We are yet to attempt understanding the interplay between various dimensions of a transportation network, let alone designing a suitable one. Moreover, pork barrel politics has always played a major part in development of our transportation routes. As a result, India has a sub-par logistics network, an agglomeration of various modes of transport built by myriad agencies.
The link between economic growth and transportation is quite strong: a road or rail, for instance, can connect rural areas to markets and alleviate poverty; businesses can shift near a transportation network, provide employment and increase incomes; most important, if the transport costs are lower in a region, the factories or even entire supply chains can move in that direction. Whereas high transport costs can often negate other advantages and render a country’s goods uncompetitive.
Within cities, the skewed provision of transport services leads to centralisation of economic activities in core areas and, consequently, of habitations over time. Thus, commuting becomes a herculean task in the congested traffic. Metro routes in Delhi and NCR have already altered residential patterns and raised property prices just as they are doing in Bangalore, Chennai and Jaipur.
Even meagre means of transport provide connectivity and services, affecting society in many ways. The bicycle scheme for girls in Bihar raised their enrolment in school; many women ride alone in the Delhi metro from home to work or market gaining confidence to be independent. Elsewhere, in both cities and villages, good connectivity may often mean the difference between life and death for the sick and the elderly.
Though not well known, several sociological studies across the world highlight the relation between crime and transport. This is vital in India, where women are more vulnerable in rural as well as urban areas, even though we do not suffer from the extreme levels of violence that South Africans face in urban public transport. The construction of physical facilities, including night lighting, has had a major role in deterring crime in Bogota and Colombia. But designed the wrong way, transport services and facilities can be a nightmare for safety and policing.
While air pollution in Delhi, linked to the broader issue of sustainability, may be our immediate concern, safety of our transport services should be an equally urgent concern, given our dismal record. All over the world, for instance, the highest number of deaths due to road accidents, 1, 41,000 in 2014, occurred in India, up by 3% from 2013. Accidents on two-wheelers account for 25 % of these deaths. And in Delhi itself, five people die on roads every day. The capital city leads in road-related deaths in India. Our record of rail safety is nothing to boast about.
Economic growth, our cherished objective, means movement of goods and people, which in turn means utilising transport. However, unless we balance the three legs of transport tripod—economic progress, social impact and environmental effect—our growth will be lopsided.
An essential step, therefore, would be to draft a new transportation policy, without emphasising only economic aspects as was done earlier. Consulting urban planners, logisticians, sociologists, environmentalists, civil society groups including doctors, teachers and lawyers, the police and the military, apart from economists would be essential.
We can plan conurbations, cities and villages only after selecting a development model, either small-is-beautiful or big-is-necessary, for diverse geographical regions. Designing a transport network would include many tradeoffs and justification of choices: selecting and mixing modes; up grading and retrofitting of the existing network; filling critical gaps; incentivising use of public transport by levying tolls and taxes; subsidising certain fuels; framing regulations for reducing emissions like efficiency standards or driving restrictions like the odd-even formula.
As of now, a chronic problem has turned acute; and formulae, quickfixes will not work. Let us go beyond odd-even, beyond Delhi, look through a wider lens and design a new transportation policy. Then, we may have happier New Years’ ahead.
Prashant K Singh is a logistics and supply chain management professional with the Indian Air Force. The views are personal.
He tells how supply chains & logistics affect everything around us on his blog, Unshackled, a part of Business Standard's platform, Punditry.
He tweets as @ZenPK
