It is now fashionable to be critical of the Modi government. Leaving politics aside for a moment, let's focus on the economy under the NDA government.
India’s economy recovered well from the mid-2013 forex crisis, led by measures taken by the RBI. This was followed by the crash in commodity prices, mainly crude oil. Falling inflation and a stronger balance of payments strengthened India's economic position. With the comfort of these figures, the RBI cut policy rates by 125bps in 2015.
However, this is not reflected in the real economy as neither economic growth nor sales, profit growth of companies has picked up. Industrial growth has been uninspiring while interest rates have remained high. While the NDA government does not have much to do with either the good news (falling inflation, strengthening external situation) or the bad news (stagnant economic growth), it is being blamed for lack of reforms and for stalled economic recovery.
Economics getting dragged into politics is not unexpected so let us discuss the criticisms further:
1. Lack of bold reforms: There was never going to be any magic wand to would usher in ‘bold reforms’ from Day 1 of the NDA Government. Any expectations of such overnight miracles were misplaced as well as uninformed. Reforms that are stuck in Parliament (for example: the Goods and Services Tax or GST) and in India’s judicial system (for example: auction of natural resources) take time to work their way through. This is simply how our democracy works. At least the NDA Government is more productive in Parliament and intent on moving through their biggest reform measure so far, the GST. Land Acquisition has moved to the states and that is probably a good thing. Direct Cash Transfer of subsidies is being expanded and subsidy delivery will improve further when food subsidies are included in the overall Direct Benefit Transfer scheme. Specific efforts like financial inclusion and Make in India will only impact the broader economy on a 5-10year time-frame and surely not within a 1-2year period.
2. Stalled economic growth: Since 1991, India’s economy has increasingly opened up to free market forces and most of our economy is thus vulnerable to larger global economic cycles. Measured on this scale, India has beaten global growth for the past few years. This is not a statement of achievement but a testimony to India’s inherent growth dynamics (a vibrant consumer-led services economy, younger age demographic, etc.). India’s industrial sector is moribund due to excesses of the past, including debt bingeing that caused stretched balance sheets, bad loans and stuck projects. This is an economic cycle that will work its way through – like all other economic cycles before this one. The NDA Government has at least taken measures to help this recovery: reforms in power distribution (UDAY), public sector banking (Indradhanush) and faster project approvals. Ministers with a good track record of delivery, Nitin Gadkari and Suresh Prabhu, are in charge of key infrastructure sectors.
The Indian economy works despite the Government and not because of it. Remember India’s Golden era of low inflation and high growth between 2003 and 2008, when an FII-driven Sensex went up 7x to salute this stellar performance? All of that happened without any major taxation reform like GST, any subsidy reform like DBT and with the same courts and institutions that we currently have. Surely, that is no reason to be complacent.
And that is the only valid criticism against the incumbent NDA Government. Its huge victory in 2014, perhaps, sowed the seeds of complacency. Maybe its topmost leaders were clueless about the task ahead and the effort required to correct the excesses of the past. After Bihar, hopefully, they’ve woken up now. Because, incremental reforms are just that – incremental. Solving core issues like poverty, infrastructure, education, employment, etc. will take far tougher measures. And if solving them can also get India back to 8%+ GDP growth, then this NDA Government would have scored a major victory. Else, bad economics and bad politics, maybe the twain shall meet in 2019.
Anupam Gupta is a Chartered Accountant and has worked in Institutional Equity Research since 2000, first as an analyst and now as a consultant.
He contributes to the Business Standard platform, Punditry, through his blog, Beyond Markets on markets & the economic horizons.
He tweets as @b50
