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Economists trim 2017 Singapore growth forecast - MAS survey

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Reuters SINGAPORE

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Economists trimmed their forecasts for Singapore's growth in the third quarter and for next year while keeping their expectations for 2016 growth unchanged, a central bank survey showed on Wednesday.

The median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) was for gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 1.8 percent in 2017, down from 2.1 percent in the previous survey published in June.

The median forecast for GDP growth in 2016 was unchanged at 1.8 percent. That would mark a slowdown from 2.0 percent in 2015 as stubbornly sluggish global demand weighs on the trade-reliant economy.

 

Third-quarter GDP growth was expected to slow to 1.7 percent on a year-on-year basis, according to the median forecast in the MAS survey, down slightly from 1.8 percent previously.

That would mark a slowdown from 2.1 percent year-on-year growth in the second quarter, when the economy grew 0.3 percent from the previous three months on an annualised and seasonally adjusted basis.

In August, the government revised its 2016 economic growth forecast to 1-2 percent from 1-3 percent previously, on concerns over Brexit and weakening global demand.

According to the latest MAS survey, economists slightly lowered their forecasts on the all-items consumer price index (CPI), but raised their forecasts for core inflation.

The headline consumer inflation rate was seen at -0.5 percent year-on-year in 2016, down from -0.4 percent in the June survey.

Core inflation, the focus of the central bank's monetary policy, was expected to come in at 1.0 percent in 2016, up from 0.8 percent in the previous central bank survey.

The central bank's current forecast is for core inflation to average around 1.0 percent in 2016 while CPI-all items inflation is forecast to come in at -1.0 to 0.0 percent.

Economists expect the Singapore dollar to trade at S$1.38 against the U.S. dollar at end-2016. It was trading at around S$1.3475 on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Masayuki Kitano; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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First Published: Sep 07 2016 | 3:35 PM IST

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