Expert Views: November consumer inflation accelerates to 4.88 percent

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's annual retail inflation accelerated in November to a 15-month high of 4.88 percent, much stronger than the 4.20 percent expected by analysts, driven mainly by faster rises in prices of food and fuel products.

A. PRASANNA, ECONOMIST, ICICI SECURITIES PRIMARY DEALERSHIP, MUMBAI

"Both headline and core CPI were above our estimates by 20-40 bps on account of upside surprises in food items and services.

"While we expect food prices to reverse somewhat in coming months, the core (inflation) momentum is worrisome. This suggests that the slowdown in core (inflation) in Q1FY18 was a one-off.

"March CPI is tracking close to 5 percent compared to the MPC estimate of 4.7 percent. Even as we retain our view of a prolonged pause we will watch out for the evolution of core (inflation) momentum over the next few prints to reassess our view."

 

MAYANK PRAKASH, FUND MANAGER, BNP PARIBAS MUTUAL FUND, MUMBAI

"No chance for a rate cut anytime soon. There could be a long pause from the Reserve Bank now. In the next quarter the chances of inflation moving close to 5 percent are high, and with global headwinds such as the reduction of quantitative easing, the Reserve Bank may not change its stance till June next year."

SUNIL SINHA, DIRECTOR AND PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, INDIA RATINGS, NEW DELHI

"Inflation has accelerated at a pace much higher than what was expected. Clearly the pressure from inflation is becoming more apparent.

"In my view, the scope for any rate cut this fiscal (year) is completely ruled out. I do not see much of change in RBI's stance in the next 6 months.

"If the inflation pressure continues beyond this level, one can expect the central bank to change its policy stance to hawkish, but that's unlikely to happen anytime soon."

TUSHAR ARORA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, NEW DELHI

"The upside in vegetable prices have lasted a bit longer than earlier anticipated. We now expect inflation to remain above 4 percent in FY 2018 and in early FY 2019 as well. This means that the RBI shall stand pat even if growth continues to remain subdued."

(Reporting by Samantha Kareen Nair, Arnab Paul, and Suvashree Dey Choudhury; Compiled by Rafael Nam)