Business Standard

Most Asian currencies dip on caution ahead of Fed meeting

Image

Reuters

By Patturaja Murugaboopathy

(Reuters) - Most Asian currencies weakened against the dollar on Tuesday as caution prevailed ahead of an outcome from the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major peers, was up 0.07 percent at 93.932.

"We have seen relatively little volatility in Asian currencies," said Chang Wei Liang, an FX strategist with Mizuho Bank. "Markets are in a wait-and-watch mode ahead of the FOMC meeting."

The Philippine peso was down nearly quarter of a percent on the day, weighed down by data showing a record trade deficit of $2.85 billion in October.

 

China's yuan slipped on rising dollar demand from corporates, while the Malaysian ringgit also declined on the day.

The Thai baht and the South Korean won advanced against the dollar.

The Bank of Thailand said on Tuesday it had intervened this year to slow the strengthening of the baht to reduce the impact on businesses.

With a near 10 percent rise, the baht is the third best-performing Asian currency against the dollar this year.

While a Fed rate hike this week is largely priced in, analysts said the focus will be more on the 2018 "dot plot".

The "dot plot" is policymakers' rate projections and provides a view into their interest rate outlook.

If the Fed maintains its current dot plot with three hikes for 2018, the dollar will strengthen against Asian currencies, said Mizuho's Wei Liang.

"But at the same time, it is not going to be substantial, given that we still have strong numbers coming up from Asia, such as Chinese trade data, which suggests global trade recovery is still on a firm footing."

On Monday, the central banks of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand launched a framework aimed at increasing direct settlement of transactions in their local currencies to reduce the current dependence on the U.S. dollar.

This framework should insulate the three currencies to a certain extent from dollar volatility and give them greater stability, Maybank said in a report.

INDIAN RUPEE

The Indian rupee was down 0.2 percent ahead of inflation data, which a Reuters poll found is expected to surge to a 13-month high in November.

Indian bond yields spiked for a fourth straight session to their highest in more than 15 months on concerns of inflation

breaching the central bank's medium-term target of 4 percent in November.

"We are mindful that, unlike the past couple of years, crude oil prices are higher and adding pressure to India's inflation and current account deficit," DBS said in a report.

Some analysts believe countries with larger current account deficits will see their currencies depreciate faster against the dollar next year.

(Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy; Editing by Eric Meijer)

Disclaimer: No Business Standard Journalist was involved in creation of this content

Don't miss the most important news and views of the day. Get them on our Telegram channel

First Published: Dec 12 2017 | 12:02 PM IST

Explore News