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Most Asian currencies pressured by U.S. dollar holding near 2018 peaks, U.S.-China trade talks

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Reuters

By Susan Mathew

(Reuters) - Most Asian currencies were lower on Monday, with the Thai baht falling the most, as the U.S. dollar held near its 2018 peak as it shrugged off weaker U.S. jobs and wages data out on Friday.

Investor sentiment on the dollar remained buoyant, despite data showing U.S. job growth increased less than expected in April and the unemployment rate dropped to near a 17-1/2-year low of 3.9 percent.

Andy Ji, a strategist for Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Singapore says the Sino-U.S. trade talk last week failing to agree on steps to close a gap in expectations may also keep Asian currencies pressured.

 

"In particular, the U.S. demand of a reduction to the bilateral trade deficit by $200 billion by 2020 is extremely challenging, as it not only requires a secular shift in the long-term savings and investment behaviour, but also, in the short-term, represents a significant disruption to global value chains."

A list of demands was presented to Beijing before the start of talks between top-level Trump administration officials and their Chinese counterparts on Thursday and Friday to try to avert a damaging trade war between the world's economic superpowers.

"As such, we continue to expect South Korean won, Singapore dollar and Taiwan dollar to underperform their regional peers given the heightened uncertainty," Ji added.

The Thai baht fell the most in the region to its lowest in nearly three months, down as much as 0.7 percent, while the Philippine peso declined 0.5 percent after two gaining sessions.

The Indian rupee fell to its lowest since February last year, on risk aversion after oil prices surged.

The Taiwan dollar was marginally higher ahead of April trade data to be out later in the day.

A Reuters poll showed that Taiwan's April exports were seen rising 11.4 percent thanks to continuing demand for the island's high-tech products.

Taiwan's exports rose 16.7 percent in March to a record high in value terms.

China's yuan edged up. Foreign exchange reserves for the month of April are expected later on Monday with a Reuters poll showing reserves may have dipped slightly to $3.133 trillion.

Trade in the South Korean won was closed on Monday for a local holiday.

INDONESIAN RUPIAH

The rupiah declined the most since January 2016 as investors awaited first quarter growth figures.

Official data showed that Indonesia posted January-March economic growth of 5.06 percent, falling slightly from the previous quarter, reflecting still-weak consumption and indicating the government may struggle to get economic expansion to its 5.4 percent target this year.

Monday's figure undershot a Reuters poll estimate of 5.18 percent growth and the previous quarter's 5.19 percent.

Lower than expected growth could put the central bank in a bind. Bank Indonesia has said it would tighten monetary policy to halt further depreciation of the currency if it threatened the inflation target or financial stability.

Annual growth in Indonesia's economy, Southeast Asia's largest, has hovered at around 5 percent. Last year's 5.07 percent crate was the best since 2013, but still far below the 7 percent President Joko Widodo has aimed for.

(Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Eric Meijer)

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First Published: May 07 2018 | 11:48 AM IST

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