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Rupee wedged in tight band; month-end importer dollar demand hurts

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Reuters MUMBAI

By Swati Bhat

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The rupee ended slightly lower on Thursday after trading in a thin band through the day as demand for the greenback from importers to meet month-end commitments weighed despite the dollar's weakness against other Asian units.

Sentiment was also cautious ahead of the release of July-September economic growth data on Friday and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review on Dec. 2.

Traders said the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend in the United States also likely led to lower activity in the onshore foreign exchange market.

However, some volatility could be seen on Friday after the outcome of a meeting among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on possible production cuts.

 

Despite the heavy dollar inflows seen into the country's debt and equity markets, the rupee has not really gained much, due to the central bank's dollar buying intervention and a broad rally in the dollar index.

Foreign funds have purchased shares worth $15.8 billion and debt worth $24.1 billion so far in 2014.

Traders expect the rupee to hold in a tight 61.70 to 62.10 range until the policy review on Tuesday and hold in a 61.50 to 62.50 range until the end of the year.

"The rupee has not depreciated to the extent of the rise in the dollar index. This makes Indian exports less competitive and the rupee prone to quick depreciation in case of any risk-off trade as India runs a current account deficit," said Murthy Nagarajan, head of fixed income at Quantum AMC.

The dollar gained against the euro but was weaker against most other Asian currencies after weak U.S. data.

India's economic growth probably slowed to 5.1 percent in the July-September quarter from a year ago, but economists polled by Reuters doubted whether that would be enough to persuade the central bank to cut interest rates just yet.

The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.8750/8850 per dollar versus Wednesday's close of 61.8450/8550.

Moves in the domestic share market will be monitored for fund-flow cues. Shares edged up ahead of the release GDP data and the RBI policy review.

In the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, the one-month contract was at 62.13, while three-month was at 62.67.

(Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

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First Published: Nov 27 2014 | 5:30 PM IST

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