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Standard and Poor's could upgrade Greece's rock bottom credit rating "pretty quickly" if Monday's plan for a third euro zone bailout in five years looks like holding, the rating agency's top European sovereign analyst said.
Moritz Kraemer told Reuters that although the firm's longer-term base case remained that Greece would end up leaving the euro, the deal had reduced the immediate risk of that and could lead to an upgrade from its CCC- grade in the next week or two.
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"It could happen pretty quickly," Kraemer said. "If you have a solid programme that we think is conducive to bringing growth back to the economy and allowing the financial system to work again, then this is more important than the medium-term debt sustainability question."
A key issue now for Kraemer and S&P is whether the Greek government can push the deal through parliament without losing its majority, a move that would force it to either step aside or reshape.
But while the euro zone's bitter negotiations had tarnished the bloc's image, Kraemer said S&P would not start automatically factoring in a premium for a risk that any country could now potentially leave the euro.
"No I don't think we do (have to systematically factor in national currency re-domination risk)," Kraemer said. "I think Greece is not only rating-wise but also other respects in a league of its own in the euro zone.
"We have made no change in our Grexit probability although the timeframe may have been lengthened."
