By Ruma Paul and Ratnajyoti Dutta
DHAKA/NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India is expected to see below-average rains this year as the emergence of an El Nino weather pattern will likely cause dry spells across South Asia, a weather forum said on Wednesday.
The forecast for poor rains ahead of the June-to-September monsoon season raised concerns of droughts in South Asia where about a quarter of the world's population, mostly poor, live.
"The entire region is prone to poor rains except parts of Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Myanmar," O.P. Sreejith, an Indian meteorologist, told Reuters.
"There is consensus about the potential for adverse impacts of El Nino on the region's monsoon rainfall," said Sreejith, after releasing the forecast of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, a group of global weather experts affiliated to the World Meteorological Organisation.
El Nino, or a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, can prompt dry spells in Southeast Asia and Australia and heavy rains in South America, curbing food crop output.
"There is a 70 percent chance of El Nino to continue during the monsoon season," said D.S. Pai, the lead forecaster of the Indian weather office in New Delhi.
India's monsoon was last hit by an El Nino in 2009 when the rainy season turned out to be the driest in about four decades.
This year, rains in India are expected to be 93 percent of a long-term average, Earth Science Minister Harsh Vardhan said, after releasing the India Meteorological Department's forecast.
India's weather office defines average rainfall as 96-104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the four-month season.
If the El Nino gains strength, it would result in droughts during the monsoon season and hit output of crops such as rice, sugar and cotton in India, which is one of the world's leading producers of these farm commodities.
Global weather models show El Nino has already been established in the Pacific Ocean, but there is still uncertainty about its intensity, Sreejith said.
The monsoons are vital for India as its farm sector accounts for 14 percent of the $2 trillion economy, and half of its farm land lacks irrigation. Weak rains have cut farm output in the past, stoking food price inflation in the world's second most populous nation.
Poor rains this year could hurt Prime Minister Narendra Modi's drive to boost growth in Asia's No.3 economy and dent efforts to bail out farmers who are struggling after damage to winter crops from unseasonal rains and hailstorms.
(Additional reporting by Mayank Bhardwaj, Writing by Ratnajyoti Dutta in NEW DELHI; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
