But Nehru had the charisma and was a communicator par excellence. He could sustain the faith even though the gap between dream and reality was widening. When the reforms were launched, bulk of the countrys active agents of history in politics, media, the academic world, business and industry and in civil society gave instant support to it. The elite, however, couldnt sell the dream of reforms to the mass of the people.
But Dr Manmohan Singh drew sustenance from the elite and could take some difficult decisions, particularly, to correct the fiscal imbalance. It was not adequately appreciated that reforms without a minimum level of fiscal correction could prove counterproductive.
However, the elections signalled that the reforms lacked mass support. It is strange that Nehru almost single-handedly could built political consensus for his flawed economics. But Dr Manmohan Singh, even with full-throated support from the elite, couldnt build political consensus for his flawless economics. This is a matter that should be pondered over by serious-minded reformers. However, since reforms lacked political consensus, Dr Singhs successors, second to none in their personal commitment to reforms, have started showing signs of fatigue in pursuing them.
This is demonstratively true in regard to fiscal correction, the most difficult component of the reforms. It was rather amusing to hear Mr Deve Gowda asking industry to tell him what to do to ward off recession. Tell me, how can I bring down the interest rates. Dear prime minister, why are you trying to be clever by half? If you ask your finance minister, he will say: Sir, stop giving concessions after concessions to win temporary popularity. The concessions that you gave to impress the UP farmers add up to few thousands of crores. To fulfil your promises, If I print money, inflation will go up and if I borrow money, interest rates will go up. You decide, what should be done?
So, Mr prime minister the root cause is that you are politically weak and in a hurry to carve out support. But the manner in which you are seeking to build up political support will prove to be counter-productive, sooner than later.
The tragedy is that the nation too is showing signs of political fatigue. The BJPs divisive communal politics and V P Singhs divisive casteist politics have fragmented the society at the ground level to such an extent that a strong and fairly durable political leadership just cant emerge. There was no clear verdict in the general elections. Six months later, the UP elections too produced a political deadlock. Just imagine, even after four elections in seven years, the UP electorate failed to give a stable majority to any party or coalition. This cannot but make people politically tired.
Businessmen and industrialists are born optimists. If not, they become economic commentators. After ignoring negative macroeconomic and political signals for quite some time, they too are beginning to show signs of fatigue. The upbeat mood seems to have evaporated. The Sensex too is moving sideways at a low level. New issues have become rare. There is a sharp drop in the announcement of intentions of new projects. Capital goods import has declined. Sales are down, inventories are piling up and the pace of production is slowing down. Businessmen and industrialists have, perhaps, started reading macroeconomic and political signals. Fatigue seems to have become contagious.
However, from a broader point of view, the more serious cause for concern is judicial fatigue. Judicial activism in the last few months instilled new hope. It was like a whiff of fresh air for those fighting against corruption and the politician-bureaucrat nexus.
But of late, it seems like the judiciary has fallen back to its usual dilatory syndrome and is showing signs of capitulation to the politician-bureaucrat nexus. If the judiciary betrays the hopes it had aroused, the frustration of the people will reach a dangerous level. Such a situation can provide a fertile ground for demagogues, who will only compound problems, not solve them. At the end of the day, it is the people who will suffer.
Alienation is afflicting all sections of society. Corruption cases are giving rise to a deep sense of moral outrage. The immediate problem is to hold the people together. Since immediate material benefits are not objectively possible, economic rejuvenation has to begin with the moral-political rejuvenation of the nation. A Herculean task, indeed. But then, there is no Gandhi around.
