The BJP and its allies will fall 11 short of the majority mark of 273 in the Lok Sabha if the AIADMK supremo J Jayalalitha withdraws support of 18 of her party MPs. The parties which the BJP hopes to target to ensure abstention or engineer a split are the DMK (6) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (17).
The composition in the Lok Sabha has improved slightly in favour of the treasury benches since the confidence motion in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was passed in March last week. It won the confidence vote 275 to 260 in a House with an effective strength of 539. The House currently has the full strength of 545.
Results of all the five elections held after the confidence motion have gone in favour of the BJP or its allies: Patna (BJP), Udhampur (BJP), Mandi (Himachal Vikas Congress), Ladakh (National Conference) and Tarn Taran (Akali Dal).
The National Conference, which abstained during the confidence motion, is now counted as one of the supporting parties with three Mps.
Senior BJP leader Vijayaraje Scindia, who could not take oath as an MP due to ill health, has since taken the oath, while Akali Dal's Prem Singh Lalpura, who did not take the oath in protest against his non-inclusion in the Union council of ministers, has since been expelled. The Akali Dal has since retained the Tarn Taran seat.
BJP sources say in view of the close rapport between Vajpayee and DMK chief M Karunanidhi, and the fact that the government has consistently withstood pressure to dismiss the DMK government, the DMK is likely to come to its rescue by either abstaining or voting along with the government during voting on the finance bill.
"Without Jayalalitha's 18 MPs, we have 265 MPs, seven short of the majority mark, excluding the speaker. It is still not clear if she will withdraw support, but we have to be ready with every eventuality.
The fact remains that she stands to lose more if she pulls out, since she cannot have the same leverage in an alternative government as she does now", a senior BJP leader says.
