For the first time after Mandal was let loose in Bihar by V P Singh, the post-fodder scam Bihar will see a good section of the upper caste Rajputs voting for the scam-tainted Mandal torch-bearer Laloo Prasad Yadav.
This is perhaps the most signficant aspect of the current elections in Bihar, which holds out the promise of blurring the politics of exclusion on the basis of caste. The Congress and the CPI are the only two parties in the State which have withstood the Mandal divide, having suffered in the process. The BJP has played the upper caste card, and Yadav has been politicking on his strong Muslim-Yadav support.
The upper castes in the state comprise Brahmins, Bhumihars, and Rajputs. The Bhumihars and Rajputs have been traditional rivals, and in pre-Mandal days, the two castes seldom supported the same candidate in a particular constituency. Post-mandal, for the first time, the two castes joined hands to support the BJP to face the social-political isolation of the upper castes.
Having realised early that upper caste votes alone would not mean seats, the BJP aligned with the Samata Party in 1996. Samata had broken away from Yadavs Janata Dal, bringing with it the backward sub-castes of Kurmis and Koeris. The upper caste vote is yet undecided. The BJP is working hard to woo the Rajputs, but so far has not succeeded.
The main reason for the shift away of Rajputs from the BJP-Samata combine this time is the campagn by former Prime Minister Chandrashekhar in favour of the RJD in the northern constituencies adjoining Uttar Pradesh. Rajputs form over 15 per cent of the total electorate in around 15 seats.
Secondly, Rajput leader Anand Mohan has broken away from the Samata and has joined Yadavs front. Mohan is alleged to have a criminal background and wields a lot of muscle power. Mohans was the first case when both Bhumihars and Rajputs voted together to send his wife Lovely Anand to the Lok Sabha in 1991 from Vaishali.
Anand Mohan is now the Bihar president of Shankersinh Vaghelas Rashtriya Janata Party. The Rajputs of Bihar are now taking pride in the fact that their caste-man is ruling Gujarat. The BJP is worried about Rajputs moving away from the party. It knows that Yadav has almost made up for his friends deserting him by entering into an alliance with the Congress. The Congress is helping Yadav in several ways. It is supporting Yadav openly in constituencies where it has not put up candidates, and is helping Yadav in other constituencies by attracting some of the upper caste votes which would have otherwise gone to the BJP-Samata alliance.
One plus factor, particularly for the BJP, is the possibility of the entire following of the Samata Party voting for its candidates this time. Of the two major castes behind Samata, Kurmis-land owners and comparatively well off socially and economically-had voted for the BJP in 1996. Koeris, the other caste supporting the Samata, is a poorer community and mainly consists of vegetable sellers. This caste had not fully voted for the BJP in 1996 but are likely to fully back the BJP now.
The committed upper caste BJP crowds have gone wild at senior BJP leader Atal Behari Vajpayee promising to set Yadav right when the BJP forms the government at the Centre. Bihar will then also elect a new assembly, he has said. While this has enthused the upper castes, it has made an equal and opposite impact on the Yadavs and Muslims who continue to be the main pillars of Yadavs base.
The Yadavs remain fully behind Laloo Yadav. They may not be as gung-ho about their leader as they were earlier, but in the BJPs one-point Laloo-hatao agenda, they fear the return of the upper caste domination in the administration and losing the new-found clout they have become used to now.
