Fertiliser subsidy: X factors that could sway a ballooning bill either way

Two policy tweaks to lower the govt's bill depend on weather, state of the global economy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war

Tumbling global gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices should please Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as she prepares to present India’s annual Budget for 2023-24 on February 1. If gas rates stay benign, after hitting unaffordable levels last year, Sitharaman can perhaps divert a huge chunk of the fertiliser subsidy to productive uses.

Last year, Narendra Modi’s government proposed two measures to bring down the fertiliser subsidy bill. The first involves asking fertiliser companies to buy up to 20 per cent of their LNG needs directly or via the Indian Gas Exchange (IGX). The second proposal reviews the domestic gas