nThe problem: What exactly will go wrong? The problem, in a line, is that many of your computer systems and programs will refuse to recognise the year 2000. The hardware problem arises due to most of the Intel-based PCs returning to the base date on reaching 2000 -- like a car odometer that rolls over and starts anew.
Whether it steps back to 1980 or 1984 depends on your BIOS (Basic Instructional Operating System) chip. The problem was caused by programmers in the years back trying to save a little bit on memory by using two digits instead of four.
The Year 2000 bug spans the gamut of the IT industry from mainframes to personal computers. This means that everytime a PC is turned on after 2000, you may have to manually set the system date and year to 2000.
Based on predictions of people involved in this problem, upwards of 80 per cent of existing PCs are unreliable. Windows 3.1 jumps back to 1900 while DOS, depending on the version, could step back to 1980 or 1984. Every PC could react in a totally different way. Thus, it is not the problem as such but the time the corrections would consume that makes urgent action imperative.
Apart from this, many computer programs allow only two digits for years -- partly for convenience, partly for saving valuable disk space: as in `96'. These dates will pose a problem when calculating a person's age or an overdue bill. The `00' in 2000 will very well stymie these calculations.
nSolutions: As the year 2000 approaches, major organisations have recognised the problem,and are working out solutions. Very often, this entails reprogramming date-dependent systems. That, in effect, means checking millions of lines of code. Companies need to ensure that they have upgraded their mainframe software to the latest versions, if possible.
But there is still the problem of older application code which must be converted. This is no easy task and will be expensive, regardless of whether it is done in-house or sourced out.
Cobol programs currently represent February 26, 1990 as 900226, and January 1, 1991 as 910101, allowing the computer to compare the two numbers and correctly assume that the smaller number represents the earlier date. On January 1, 2000, or 000101, however, those comparisons will fall apart.
Unfortunately for many, 2000 is a non-negotiable date. It cannot possibly be postponed and it will certainly be a major upheaval in many large organizations worldwide, including governments at the various levels.
nFallout: To the avearage citizen, this could mean possibilities such as ATM fiascos locking him out of his money, erroneous calculations on his credit card/savings interest, effect of company collapses (due to accounting, dues and payroll mess-ups) due to inadequate precautions on the stock market (even a few will do, as the media will generate negative publicity) which could cause his investments to lose value (houses, stocks, etc.).
Again, this could mean a possible run on banks and a spate of withdrawals if consumer confidence was broken -- a panic wave could break out as the date approaches.
Also, if you run a company that has checked out all potential crises, still it does not save you if those you bank with, or your partners -- eg. raw material providers, clients, spare part manufacturers etc. -- have failed to do their part in securing their computer systems.
For the SOHO user, options are to go in for a BIOS upgrade (older BIOS may not be upgradeable -- you have to check with your vendor about that), throw out all programs that are not year 2000 compatible and get new versions and get new operating systems such as Windows 95 that recognise Year 2000. Buying a second hand system from the market, or going in for an assembled system starts to look like a serious mistake in this light.
nNew PCs?: When going in for a new PC, make sure it is compatible, as even 486 systems from reputed manufacturers in 1995 are known to fail to address 2000 AD. Microsoft products, in their latest versions, are Year 2000 compatible and the same goes for IBM. The Information Technology Association of America (ATAA) has issued stern warnings on potential failures to companies and maintains a website to provide advice to Information Systems managers.
The developed nations are taking it quite seriously, (the estimated worldwide cost is between US$300 to $600 billion) and the state of Nebraska, US, has introduced a $.02 cigarette tax in a bid to fund the research for a remedy to this problem. The developing countries cannot be expected to put aside the large fund needed and hence the problem can be expected to manifest itself here.
The Year 2000 problems should be taken very seriously. It would be difficult to convince the management to spend a large amount of money and manpower on what is essentially a salvage operation. But failure to take action would mean facing bankruptcy or class action suits in a worse case scenario, or a few angry employees at best.
