With the market arrivals of wheat in the major surplus states of Punjab and Haryana tapering off, the public agencies seems likely to buy about a million tonne less wheat in the current procurement season than anticipated earlier.
This will not only partly relieve the pressure on storage space, but would also keep the overall subsidy bill marginally down because of reduced inventory carrying cost.
The total carryover foodgrain stock in the beginning of the next agricultural year, which was forecast earlier at a whopping 42 million tonne, might actually be around 40 to 41 million tonne, according to fresh reckoning.
However, the grain inventory would still be over 16 million tonne in excess of the minimum buffer requirement of 24.3 million tonne in the beginning of July.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI) had anticipated a total wheat procurement of around 16.2 million tonne this year. The actual procurement till yesterday was around 14.34 million tonne.
Since the bulk of the crop has already been marketed, the total procurement for the season may remain anywhere between 15 and 15.5 million tonne, it is estimated.
In any case, the current season's wheat procurement has already surpassed the previous high of 14.14 million tonne achieved last year. Punjab, as usual, has been the largest contributor to the Central grain pool with procurement already exceeding 8.9 million tonne and a little more to come.
Haryana has so far contributed 4.13 million tonne and Uttar Pradesh 6.85 lakh tonne.
The public agencies have purchased over 97 per cent of the total mandi arrivals, notably in Punjab and Haryana, so far this year. The private trade and the wheat flour millers have mopped up only about three per cent of the marketed surplus at prices higher than the minimum support price of Rs 580 a quintal. Besides the bumper harvest, the quality of the grains is said to have been excellent this year thanks largely to favourable weather in the entire north-western wheat belt.
