Like an underwater explosion releasing a powerful series of currents speeding in different directions, the likely election today of Congress president Sitaram Kesari as the leader of the Congress Party in Parliament has already generated a great deal of activity in the incestuous world of politics.
A variety of senior politicians have been in touch with each other in recent days to work on various permutations for a majority in the Lok Sabha.
Among the more likely possibilities is: Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav as the Deputy Prime Minister in a Kesari-led government. Among the more bizarre ones: P V Narasimha Rao leading a Congress split to prop another bid by Atal Behari Vajpayee.
West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu's recent statements on how he could have managed a coalition better than Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda has raised eyebrows and prodded his party to rule out the possibility of his leading a government.
But he is not the only one who apparently sees that the time to toss hats into the ring of power is here again.
While Kesari's backers talk to various United Front groups, at least a section in the BJP has been exploring the possibility, albeit remote, of getting enough small groups in the Lok Sabha to support another bid by Vajpayee.
Industry minister Murasoli Maran was approached in late December by a non-Bhartiya Janata Party leader with the argument that the DMK had always been at loggerheads with the Congress and could hope to gain nothing by supporting a Congress government, even if the Tamil Manila Congress did.
Even if the DMK and the Telugu Desam Party were to contribute 17 members of Parliament each to prop up another bid by Vajpayee, the only other likely supporters, apart from the already committed Samata Party and Akali Dal, are the five members of Asom Gana Parishad and the 11 MPs of Bahujan Samaj Party -- provided the BJP backs a Mayawati government in Uttar Pradesh.
That would still bring the tally up to only 241 in a house of 541. Although one of Narasimha Rao's aides has been approached to find out if a section of the Congress would allow a Vajpayee government to survive, perhaps after a split, this is obviously a long shot.
The scenario for Kesari's candidature looks brighter. Kesari is confident of the support of TMC leader G K Moopanar, with whom he has had a long association, and of Janata Dal president Laloo Prasad Yadav, though that would mean a split in the Janata Dal. Yadav has the support of at least 17 and up to 22 Janata Dal members of the Lok Sabha.
The key to Kesari's bid could be a deal with Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Some political circles attach importance to the talk over the past week of an SP-Congress bid to form a government in UP. These circles say that if Kesari appoints Yadav as the Deputy Prime Minister and helps to form an SP-led government in Lucknow, Yadav might be able to persuade the Left parties to give at least outside support to Kesari.
Yadav has a good relationship with the Communist Party of India (Marxist). The Left parties would be chary of declaring their support openly but could allow a Kesari government to survive from vote to vote on the argument that secularism had to be protected against the BJP.
If the Left and a section of Janata Dal were to allow a Kesari-led government, and the TMC were to be part of it, Kesari's suppoters hope that they could persuade DMK and Telugu Desam Party -- each with 17 members in the House -- to support the bid.
