Jai Shri bomb. I see good times ahead for Mr Vajpayee. Even United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Annan, has backed India's logic against nuclear apartheid. (Remember, Mr Annan was promoted to the job because Ms Albright thought Mr Ghali wasn't pliable enough.) In the US itself, support for India has been expressed by leaders ranging from Jimmy Carter on the liberal fringe through to Henry Kissinger on the conservative mainstream. Most likely then, the US' sanctions will be implemented in no more than the letter of the law, and will last no longer than a year-and-a-half. Nor will Japan's. By then at the latest, India will have negotiated an attractive enough bargain to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). It is meant to come into effect in 1999 and cannot unless India ratifies it. In doing so, India will earn encomiums and gain stature. Already, the sophistication of the weapons it tested last week have astounded the world -- including some of those who have spent years figuring out India's nuclear programme.
The initial sharpness and haste to impose sanctions were meant to ensure that Pakistan did not follow suit. That isn't likely now. The US sanctions would cripple its economy and military, and could expose its inability to match India's sophisticated weapons. The US administration's next concern will be to contain domestic opposition. Given the trend over the last week, it is manageable. These priorities taken care of, the US will return its concentration to keeping its carefully constructed post-Cold War nuclear arms freeze intact. That is important for both its security and its budget. For the CTBT, dovetailed with the NPT, caps the costly nuclear arms race at a stage when the US is far ahead of the rest. Only France, perhaps cash-strapped Russia and China, which depends on US technology for computer simulated tests, can continue to develop nuclear weapons after the ban on explosions.
Now that India has declared that it too can, it has virtually replaced the UK as the fifth nuclear power -- if indeed Britain does not have these technologies. For these don't just create deterrents but tactical, low-yield weapons that can actually be used as mortar, fighter and submarine shells in war. Since India's scientists have catapulted it to the super club of those who can develop these, the US must willy nilly accept it as a member of the original club, even if the card reads `associate member' or `invitee' or whatever. The signals from Washington and New York suggest that a deal may be struck sooner than later -- unless India decides to conduct another series or two of explosions first. If the US administration is in a mood to woo the Vajpayee government and turn President Clinton's visit, scheduled around November, into a triumphal celebration, the cumbersome process of rolling back the sanctions may even start in four months.
I say four months because that's when the stage will be getting set for a major round of assembly elections. The BJP seemed set to win Madhya Pradesh and Delhi in any case. It may now manage Rajasthan. The ruling party is already organising marches from Pokhran to Delhi, carrying hopefully non-radioactive dust right across the sandy state. The BJP might well cause elections for the UP and Bihar assemblies too. And if Chandrababu Naidu is in a mood to gamble, he might just order snap polls for Andhra. That would not only allow him to ride the wave of nuclear euphoria in alliance with the BJP, it would surprise his feisty opponent, new Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee President, Y S Rajashekhar Reddy, a year ahead of schedule.
If all these assemblies were to be elected simultaneously, it would be as close to a mini general election as one can get. And the BJP, with its allies, might even win them all. If the US smokes the peace pipe by then, Mr Vajpayee could be projected as the man who had the guts to win at poker. If the US doesn't, BJP workers would have a ready-made ogre to attack -- the big, bad white man who doesn't want India to stride beside him on the world stage, strong and independent. They wouldn't even have to name the Congress president. Her face when she appears to campaign would be a sufficient counterpoint to Mr Vajpayee, who has gone today to pose for pictures at Pokhran. Natwar Singh, the Congress' point man on foreign affairs, has already queered the pitch for Mrs Gandhi, completely missing the euphoric pulse of the voters with his initial nit-picking about the government's timing.
If the BJP does fare well, Mr Vajpayee's chair will become far more stable and comfortable than it was during his first month in it. Already, there has not been a peep from Ms Jayalalitha, Mr Swamy or any of the other troublesome allies of the BJP since the first set of blasts. Plus, the road has been cleared for a sober, relatively balanced budget, with the nation quite willing to accept arguments about the need to hunker down, tighten the belt a notch, roll up the sleeves and face up to the white ogre. The BJP has promised a major budgetary impetus for affordable computers, and this will further mesmerise the middle classes with talk of modernity. The immense heat this last month may have been painful but it points to yet another good monsoon. So, if the prices of some key things can be kept from rising, the poor should have no major reason to complain either. As I said, Jai Shri bomb.
