The results of the general election and simultaneous state Assembly byelections in Kerala have brought both cheer and disappointment to the rival fronts in Kerala.
While the United Democratic Front (UDF) won 11 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats from the state, wresting one from its arch foe the Left Democratic Front (LDF), the latter won in all the three assembly byelections.
The UDF was especially pleased in winning back the Thiruvananthapuram, Ernakulam and Kozhikode - the states most prestigious Lok Sabha seats. While the LDF pulled off remarkable wins in Kottayam and Adoor, the UDF defeated Union labour minister M P Veerendrakumar in Kozhikode. Despite the seemingly no-win-no-loss scenario for both the fronts, the UDF polled more votes that the LDF. Official figures show that the UDF got 2,67,244 votes more this time compared to 1996. The LDFs tally increased by 1,59,096 votes. The UDF got 68,47,709 votes against the LDFs 66,28,362. The gap in the vote share of the UDF and the LDF has widened from 0.9 percent in 1996 to 1.47 percent in 1998.
For high-profile Congress leader and chief UDF architect K Karunakaran, his victory from Thiruvananthapuram is doubly heartening he wrested back the traditional UDF constituency from the LDFs highly popular K V Surendranath and wreaked sweet revenge for his defeat at the hands of LDF strongman VV Raghavan in Thrissur in the last elections.
However, Karunakarans joy was tempered by the shattering defeat of his son K Muraleedharan in the hands of his old rival Raghavan in Thrissur this time.
A key UDF partner, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), fared much better this time in its bastions in northern Kerala - Ponnani and Manjeri. The IUMLs victories are seen as an indication of its success in winning back the confidence of Muslims. The Muslim League faced a setback in the 1996 election when its traditional supporters were seen to have punished it for being part of the UDF led by the Congress which was in power at the Centre at the time of the Babri incident .
ThIANS e Muslim vote bank has reportedly contributed to the defeat of Veerendrakumar in Kozhikode. The UDF benefited from this, it could not influence enough minority votes to win in Kasargode, Vadakara and Ottappalam.
An obviously disturbing trend for both the fronts was the Bharatiya Janata Partys (BJP) slow growth in electoral influence. Though the BJP failed miserably in its bid to open an account in the state even after contesting all the 20 Lok Sabha seats, figures show its gaining a foothold. Its share of votes has risen to 7.98 per cent this time as against 5.6 per cent in 1996.
The BJP polled 11,92,149 votes this time as against 8,94,843 in 1996. In all constituencies, except in Kollam, the party bettered its previous record. The partys morale has been specially boosted by its performance in the Muslim-dominated Ponnani and Manjeri where it polled 65,008 and 79,549 votes respectively.
It has also done better in all the three Assembly seats - Mala, Vaikkom and Chathannur - where byelections were held. In Mala, the BJP won 6,535 as against 3,909 in the previous poll. In Vaikkom, its votes increased from 2,930 to 5,257. In Chathannur the figures were 3,633 and 7,252 respectively.
Kodikunnil Sureshs defeat at the hands of LDF new face Chengara Surendran in Adoor with a margin of 16,718 votes also came as a surprise. LDF candidate N K Premachandrans victory in Kollam over the Congresss K C Rajan with a huge margin of 71,762 votes is seen a recognition of his performance in Parliament.
Out of the five women candidates in the fray, only the LDFs AK Premajam could make the grade. She won from Vadakara with a commendable margin of 56,000 votes.
