What are the differences between the just-concluded first half of this financial year, 2015-16, and the equivalent half of the previous year, 2014-15? As Table 1 shows, one big economic variable changed almost identically over the two periods: The price of Brent crude oil fell over 10 per cent in both first halves. However, the price of iron ore fell more in the first half of FY15. The price of gold, shown in Table 2, too, fell almost identically in the two periods. But other metals, shown in Table 3, fell more in recent months than in the equivalent period last year, suggesting that the downturn in the commodity super-cycle has only now taken widespread hold.
The easing of prices that marked the first months of the new government last year, meanwhile, has not endured for all agricultural commodities. As Table 4 shows, wheat, pulses and cooking oils - which saw prices fall or rise relatively slowly in the first half of FY15 - have seen steep price increases in the just-concluded half-year. Vegetables, always sensitive, are depicted in Table 5, and there too is a difference between years.
Meanwhile, as far as the stock markets are concerned, the big gains of the first half of last year are history, as Table 6 shows. While small- and mid-cap indices have not lost as much in H1FY16 as the Sensex, they did gain far more than the Sensex in H1FY15. Tables 7 and 8 show which companies have gained, and which lost, in the two periods.