Tamil Nadu Cool To Sonia; Dmk-Tmc Stays On Top

In the Dravidian heartland of Tamil Nadu, electoral encounters between the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its rival, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), have essentially been virulent two-way contests.

The significant difference in this election is that the state is set for a three-way contest, as an organisationally challenged Congress, going alone in the state after a long time, is expected to make a dent in the electoral prospects of the major Dravidian parties after Sonia Gandhis campaiging.

Going against the grain of the Dravidian movement, which has had a historical association with a pro-backward caste, anti-Hindi imposition, rationalist and regional identity agenda, the AIADMK ditched its long-time ally, the Congress party, to forge a hasty alliance with the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

 

AIADMKs critics said that the alliance provided the BJP an illegitimate entry into hallowed Dravidian territory. AIADMK supporters however said that the alliance was only a continuation of a long-standing nationalist orientation of the party.

A breakaway group of the Congress, the Tamil Maanila Congress, has been the DMKs ally since 1996. Ever since the split that led to the formation of the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), the Congress has had only a shadowy presence in Tamil Nadu. A splintered Congress woke up rather late to its desolate position, not knowing where to turn for an ally.

The Congress fortunes, however, changed after Sonia Gandhi launched her election campaign on behalf of the beleaguered party in early January from Sriperumbudur, where Rajiv Gandhi, was assassinated by the LTTE.

Although the Congress is projected to garner a 13 per cent vote share in Tamil Nadu based on an opinion poll conducted by the Apt Research Group for leading publications and television channels in South India, the pollsters reading is that Sonia Gandhi has had a moderate impact in the State. By rendering the contest tripolar, the Congress is expected to impact the AIADMKs seat share.

According to Apt projections, the DMK-TMC-CPI (Communist Party of India) alliance, which is expected to get 42.46 per cent of the popular vote, is poised to win at least 33 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu. This alliance made an all out sweep in the 1996 Lok Sabha election winning all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and the one seat in neighbouring Pondicherry. Last time, the alliances vote share was 54.86 per cent.

Making a significant interpretation of these figures, N. Ram, the editor of the national fortnightly magazine, Frontline, which published the opinion poll findings, said that the AIADMK would have gained more seats had it remained with its traditional ally, the Congress.

The Apt projection is that as a consequence of the tripolar contest, the AIADMK-BJP alliance will not get more than six seats in the state in spite of a vote share of 30.43 per cent. In a two-way contest, the 12.4 percentage point swing away from the DMK-TMC-CPI alliance may have benefited the AIADMK.

An interesting aspect of opinion polls is the information gathered on voter perception on important issues. For instance, nearly 75 per cent of the respondents in the Apt survey in Tamil Nadu approved the death sentence that was given to all the 26 accused in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.

Nearly 56 per cent of the respondents thought it was unfair of the Congress to demand the withdrawal of the DMK the move that led to fall of the United Front Government at the Centre based on the Jain Commission interim report that is also looking into the larger political and social ramifications that led to Rajiv Gandhis assassination.

A thin line divides politics from the film world in Tamil Nadu. The DMK camp counts on Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi, who continues to deliver the stringent rhetoric that flowed from his pen to create power-packed film scripts and dialogues for Tamil cinema of yesteryears. Besides, the TMC has an avid supporter in the Tamil superstar Rajnikant, who is chary of taking a plunge into politics, but whose signal of support translates into overwhelming grassroots support because of a wide and active network of Rajnikant fan clubs throughout the state.

Even after AIADMK founder and former Chief Minister M. G. Ramachandran - known popularly by his acronym MGR - died, his leading lady and later Chief Minister, Jayaram Jayalalitha, continues to rely heavily on popular hit songs from MGR films to liven up the AIADMK campaign.