Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's Superman. When the world's greatest superhero first appeared in the skies above America, that's the kind of trouble people had in identifying him. Back home in India, policy makers seem to have the same kind of problem with baby Astha, the country's billionth citizen. Is she a resource or a liability? A debit or a credit? Is her birth cause for celebration, or should it be reason for another seminar on the failure of the country's population policy? While political leaders utter dire warnings about the population explosion, a small but vociferous section of economists have said that a growing population means more productivity and growth. Given the right conditions, they say, population is a resource.
Since all this fuss is about Astha, the simplest course , of course, would have been to put the question to her point blank. Unfortunately, however, she has remained blissfully unaware of the debate raging around her, maintaining an enigmatic silence so far, except for the occasional gurgle.
Trouble is, maybe it's not all so cut and dried. Sure, Astha may grow up to do her parents proud. She could be a Sarojini Naidu or an Indira Gandhi. She could well turn out to be a female version of Bill Gates, in which case her claim to be an asset would be all the stronger, because the assets would be denominated in dollars.
But on the other hand, she may possibly , God forbid, be a Jayalalitha or a Rabri Devi, which most people would classify firmly in the liability bracket. Or she may grow up to be a contingent liability like Sonia Gandhi, whose status as an asset or liability is a mystery even to her own partymen.
But perhaps the best way to solve the problem is to consider the historical precedent of what happened when India's millionth child was born, several centuries ago. The same kind of debate was generated in the country in those days, including a famous seminar at Hastinapura, attended by all the best brains of the time. Thanks to "Ironed" magazine (the tech publication launched to celebrate the birth of the Iron Age, when iron-tipped ploughs revolutionised the economy), we have a transcript of the proceedings of the seminar.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE SEMINAR
King: Woe is me. The birth of the millionth Indian child is of grave concern to all of us. Economist 1 : Farms will have to be divided among heirs. Water will have to be shared. If the population doubles, we'll each have to make do with half of what we have now.
General: But we can get more land. If we have more people, we'll be able to drive out the non-Aryans, grab their lands, and maintain our standard of living. We need a policy of expansion.
Maneka Gandhi (a great animal rights activist of the time): When you farm all that land, have you considered what will happen to the bandicoots?
Economist 2: You have all forgotten the improvements we have made in productivity. The iron-tipped plough will be able to increase the crop sufficiently to support a somewhat larger population. And the Law of Demographic Transition will soon take hold, slowing down the rate of population growth.
Mystic(there were no liberals then): The Lord will provide. Let things be, and an Invisible Hand will so order things that they turn out for the best.
King: The problem is, these lower orders are so damn incontinent. No self-control at all. How can you build a great nation with such material?
Economist 1: Our handloom industry is already operating at full capacity. If the population grows and grows, where will we get our loincloths from?
General: Have you considered the fact that the rate of population growth in neighbouring Kapilavastu is twice ours? At this rate, they'll overrun us.
Maneka Gandhi: Have you thought about the earthworms? Can we set up rehabilitation centres for the displaced ones?
Mystic: Let the market decide.
(At this point there is a commotion and a lunatic bursts into the conference hall)
Madman: You're all a bunch of idiots. What's a mere million? A few hundred years from now, the land will be able to grow enough to feed a hundred times today's population; huge workshops will produce all kinds of wonderful goods. There will be new sources of energy. Men will fly through the air; land on the moon; live in cities of a million souls. They will be able to splice the basic building blocks of life; build buildings a hundred stories high. And all this will be made possible by new technology. A million people? We can easily support a billion.
(Guards force the madman out)
King: Ha, ha, poor old fool. I suggest we segregate the sexes. That'll stop population growth soon enough.
Economist 2: Heh, heh, I'm an optimist myself, but the madman exaggerates the power of technology.
Mystic: He may be mad, but I'm against all coercion. That may work in China, not here.
Maneka Gandhi: Whatever you do, don't forget the dung-beetles.
