Just as important, the Union defence minister can carry on a war of words with the UP chief minister, each vowing to bring the other down, but neither can do very much. Each rules in his or her space because of the alliance partners that support them, although neither has a large flock of legislators.
So, the subtle shifts and maneouvres by various alliance partners are perhaps more important than how much time Laloo Prasad takes to resign. He seems determined to split the Janata Dal unless he is allowed to remain its president. The bitterness within the Dal is now too deep for the party to remain united under him. H D Deve Gowda, Sharad Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan, Srikant Jena and now even I K Gujral are all so openly ranged against him that his ouster from the party job too can surely only be a matter of time.
Laloo Prasad may remain the partys only credible vote-catcher in Bihar but his enemies are unfazed. Their buoyancy perhaps owes in part to Samata Party leader, Nitish Kumars indications that he could return to the Dal if Laloo Prasad was to leave it or split it. Kumars party president, George Fernandes, is likely to remain allied to the BJP, for whom he has become a useful bridge to other parties and leaders. But it is Kumar who brings in the votes of at least his Kurmi caste in large parts of central Bihar. Kumar is mature enough to know that Laloo Prasad must be succeeded as chief minister by another Yadav, at least for the moment, but his return as a front-rank leader of the party would help it to survive the jolt of a split.
If there is a split, Laloo Prasad may not end up isolated either. While the grey eminence of the Dal, V P Singh, has not taken a stand on the imbroglio, there is every indication that he supports Laloo Prasad. His aides, such as Sompal, have been leading delegations of Dal MPs in support of Laloo Prasad. Thats interesting, for Singhs assessments of heartland politics is seldom wrong. And this time, he seems to think Laloo Prasad has a future.
An important piece of the jigsaw that might reveal the scenario in Singhs mind could be the statements of Mayawati, which have been more or less supportive of Laloo Prasad. Her greatest enemy is Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav despises Laloo Prasad ever since the latter stymied his elevation to the prime ministers chair at the last minute last April. Another enemy of Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has spoken in favour of Laloo Prasad in recent days is the Jat leader, Ajit Singh. If the beginnings of an anti-Mulayam Singh alliance, with Laloo Prasad as a key player, is becoming visible, it should not be surprising that V P Singh would be part of it. The animosity between V P Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav, which dates from the days when they were on opposite sides of the political divide in UP, has remained constant through all the political turmoil of the 1990s.
While neither Laloo Prasad nor V P Singh could ally with the BSP as long as it remains tied to the BJP, they may hope that alliance will break, and the BSP, along with other anti-Mulayam Singh, anti-BJP forces, may ally with the Congress. The Congress acknowledges that it is a marginal force in UP and would be willing to give the BSP far more seats to contest than the BJP could.
At the Centre, former prime minister, H D Deve Gowda, took the opportunity provided by Laloo Prasads intransigence to try and unsettle Gujral. Significantly, he chose to target Gujral for inaction from a Samajwadi Party podium in Lucknow, where Mulayam Singh Yadav was declaring war on Mayawati. But Gujral has smartly taken a stand for public morality, publicly advising his party president to resign. His senior aides say he will not dismiss the Bihar government. Gowda cannot demand that either, since most of the United Fronts leaders are committed to opposing dismissals of state governments. Front convenor, N Chandrababu Naidu, had called for Laloo Prasad to resign even before Gujral did, but Naidu has made it clear that he does not want the Centre to dismiss the Bihar government.
Gujral knows that the support of leaders like Naidu is far more important for his governments survival than that of a Laloo Prasad or any other leader of Bihar or UP. Of course, his real test will come if and when Laloo Prasad, or any other leader from these states, openly ties up with the Congress. For that will mean they are ready to take over the government or to face elections.
