'India's teledensity to double by 2009'

The country's teledensity is expected to more than double to 18 per cent by March 2009 from the current 8 per cent, according to a study by Cris Infac.

The telecom subscriber base is also estimated to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 27 per cent to touch 212 million in the next five years.

The growth in the telecom sector will come largely from the mobile services segment, which will contribute to more than 85 per cent of this increase.

Rajnish Rastogi, head, research, Cris Infac, said, "As per our estimates, the mobile subscriber base would be in the range of 140-170 million by March 2009, based on the expansion of coverage and reduction in tariffs."

The growth in the number of fixed-line subscribers will come mainly from the corporate sector. "We have already experienced a contraction in the residential subscriber base for wireline services. This trend is likely to continue for the next 2-3 years," Rastogi.

Rastogi also stressed on the lowering of the access deficit charges (ADC) in the next five years. "If the current level of ADC at Rs 63 billion continues at the same level for the next few years, the actual ADC charges will come down as the telecom subscriber base will more than double," Rastogi said, with the increase in teledensity, the remote and rural areas will start becoming profitable and reduce their losses, thereby eliminating the need of a high ADC charge, he added.

According to the report, with the reduction in the ADC, substantial increase in the subscriber base and further regulatory changes, tariffs are also set to decline.

"The blended average revenue per user of mobile operators is expected to decline to Rs 296 per month by 2008-09, form the current levels of Rs 469 per month," Rastogi said.