Affordable computers and the internet

For those who've missed the earlier columns, here's a recap. Future Tech recently completed a year. In this series, we are looking at some of the ideas discussed over the first 27 columns.

All columns are available online at http://www.emergic.org/futuretech. Two columns in August (11 and 25) discussed the notion of the computing Kumbh Mela.

"Every twelve years or so, the world of computing sees major breakthroughs which transform the landscape. Think of this as the computing equivalent of the Kumbh Mela. The last major breakthrough was during 1992-94 when the launch of Microsoft Windows 3.1, Intel's Pentium processor, SAP's R/3, and the web browser Mosaic heralded an unprecedented period of all-round growth until the slowdown in the early part of this decade. The next computing Kumbh Mela should be just around the corner. What will it be?"

My answer: "The next big thing in computing will be about building a platform which makes the two most important creations of the past "� the computer and the internet "� available to the next users at a fraction of today's prices. What emerging markets like India need is the equivalent of a 'tech utility' which makes available 'commPuting' as a utility to the masses. A centralised platform that makes available computing as a service and accessible via thin clients over a high-speed broadband infrastructure, neighbourhood computing centres that provide access on a pay-per-use basis, a community-centric content platform which makes available local information and helps small businesses connect with one another and investments in education and healthcare to make sure they reach rural people "� these are the elements of the tech utility."

The September 8 column discussed the characteristics of the next internet "� always-on, ubiquitous, high-speed, on-demand, multi-format, two-way, personalised and not free.

"This new internet will make possible path-breaking applications and services. From voice over IP which will allow phone calls anywhere in the country for a flat fee to video on demand which can provide education and entertainment to users when they want it, from software as a service for businesses to automate all their processes to multi-player gaming platforms which will transform leisure time, the new internet will create new opportunities "� as well as threaten conventional business models. It will force players in computing, entertainment, consumer electronics and entertainment to tread into one another's territories."

Innovation in India was the subject of the September 22 column. "India needs to build an ecosystem of innovation and entrepreneurship to build upon its success in services to occupy centrestage in the world of technology in the years to come... First, we need entrepreneurs willing to take risk... Second, we need early-stage venture capital and mentoring for the start-ups... Third, entrepreneurs with the initial capital will need mentoring... Fourth, we need talent willing to join start-ups... Finally, there is a need to focus on the 'middle of the pyramid' market."

Search was the subject of two columns in October (6 and 20). "Think of today's search as the DOS era: a good start, but not enough to unleash the real power of what can be. It took a decade to go from DOS to Windows. It has taken us almost as long to start imagining and working towards the next generation of search technologies."

The key ideas which will help define tomorrow's search are: integration between desktop and internet search, better visualisation and navigation tools, real-time search, search streams analysis, multimedia search, search on mobile devices and local and vertical search.

I concluded by asking: "The state of search is very much like the way the scientific world was in the seventeenth century until Issac Newton came along and helped lay the foundation for the world ahead with his theories and inventions. A similar revolution is needed in the world of search. Can we in India play a role, just as we did in some of the mathematical discoveries many centuries ago?"

In 2004, the number of mobile phones in India exceeded the landline user base. That number is marching towards the 50 million mark. The December 1 column asked what the computing industry could learn from the success of wireless providers.

"There are two key ideas from cellphones that computers need to adopt. The first is the creation of a zero-management user device, and the second is that of a subscription-based utility-like payment model. The underlying enabler for both will in fact be the broadband industry that is coming alive in India. What India needs is to leapfrog to next-generation networks that can deliver broadband over the air to users, creating a high-speed, ubiquitous and pervasive data network. This can then enable the deployment of network computers like cellphones connected to a centralised grid of servers which provide the compelling services that users need and are willing to pay for. In fact, given the digitisation that is happening in both voice and television, the network computer could in future be the converged device, capable of providing a hybrid set of services to users."

The last three columns (December 15 and 29, 2004 and January 12, 2005) discussed cold technologies, defined as those that have neutral revenue or even anti revenue attributes.

Their importance stems from the fact that even as they shrink the investment that users have to make, they help them catch-up or even leapfrog to a world that is 'faster, better, cheaper' in terms of the digital infrastructure that we need to build in India.

The cold technologies discussed: open-source software, software as a service, voice over IP, wi-fi, network computers, the China supply chain and India services, file-sharing networks and online advertising.

So I hope you've enjoyed this journey so far. Buckle up "� there's lots more to come! The ride has just begun.

(This is the concluding part of a series)

Rajesh Jain is managing director of Netcore Solutions Pvt Ltd. His weblog is http/www.emergic.org. He can be contacted at rajesh@netcore.co.in