IT firms likely to see mixed Q4 results

It's the guidance from frontline Indian IT service providers "" especially Infosys Technologies "" for financial year 2008-09, and not just the results for the fourth quarter, that is being eagerly awaited by analysts and the stock market, as the result season nears.

The hiring pattern, volume growth, pricing and indications of IT spending in the US are other parameters that are keenly tracked.

The fourth quarter (January-March) is usually a weak quarter for the Indian IT companies due to the lesser number of billing days. This time, however, the good news is that the rupee has depreciated by about 1.3 per cent during the quarter.

Every increase/decrease of a percentage point in the rupee lowers/adds to the operating (EBIDTA) margins by 30-50 basis points (bps).

Indian IT companies, though, have increased their hedges significantly over the past few quarters and this could lead to foreign exchange losses (mark-to-market losses on account of forward covers) as the rupee depreciated against the dollar during the period.

TCS, Wipro and HCL Technologies, with forward covers over twice their quarterly revenue, are likely to be impacted the most. 
 

WHAT TO EXPECT  Expected growth for some IT firms in Q4 2007-08
Company	$revenue growth(%)	EBIDTA  growth
Infosys	05-Jun	35 bps
TCS	03-Apr	Flat
Wipro	5	35 bps
Satyam	06-Aug	120 bps
HCL Tech	5	Flat
Source: Analyst reports

But IT analysts suggest that most of the mark-to-market losses would get amortised over the contract life due to cash-flow accounting.

J P Morgan analysts expect the large players to report a modest 4-6 per cent dollar-based sequential growth in revenue (compared to the trailing quarter), with company-specific weakness in Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). They also expect volumes to lead revenue growth, accompanied with stable pricing.

The demand for IT services would undoubtedly reflect the slowdown in the US with a lag of one or two quarters.

Margins, analysts say, should show a marginal upward trend with further normalisation of salary hikes and the rupee depreciation during the quarter.

However, they expect a weak hiring pattern as companies combat the growing demand weakness through increasing utilisation and greater focus on fresher hiring.

Infosys will be the first to declare its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 on April 15.

It is expected to register a 5-6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-on-q) dollar-based revenue growth, with around 35 bps improvement in EBITDA margins.

CLSA analysts expect the company to kick-off the June 2008 quarter with a 0.5-1.5 per cent q-on-q dollar-revenue guidance.

Analysts expect TCS to witness a lower 3-4 per cent q-on-q dollar revenue growth and flat margins.

Wipro Global IT may witness a 5 per cent dollar-based revenue growth, slightly above its guidance of $955 million, which covers the cost of the Infocrossing acquisition. Its operating margins are expected to increase by around 35 bps.

Satyam should see a 6 per cent q-on-q dollar-based revenue growth (CLSA analysts see it touching 8 per cent) at the higher end of its guidance of 5.6-6.1 per cent. Operating margins are expected to witness an improvement of 120 bps.

HCL Technologies is expected to report a 5 per cent q-on-q dollar revenue growth and flat EBITDA margins. However, foreign exchange losses are likely to lead to a 10 per cent decline in its quarterly net profit.

Tech Mahindra is predicted to have a decent quarter, with 5 per cent q-on-q rupee-based revenue growth and flat margins. Overall, the company's net profit may decline by 4 per cent due to lower other income.

Patni may have a muted quarter, with flattish revenues, in line with its guidance. Mid-cap companies are expected to report a quiet quarter due to weak dollar revenue growth accompanied by margin recovery.