Massive Urban spike foreseen, food price volatility may worsen as monsoon approaches; decade high wholesale inflation may put further pressure, but favourable base effect may have tempering effect
Centre's support and private sector participation may relieve some of the load
India is clocking close to 300,000 new infections a day, and the death toll is going past 2,000 per day.
While govt made Rs 1.16 trn more revenue, it spent Rs 1.18 trn more on food subsidy too. But it can be said that the govt used the gains it made to settle FCI arrears once and for all
The situation was not very different globally
Covid-19 testing usually speeds up when local reports indicate a rising positivity rate. But Kerala and Assam dragged on till polls were over, while in West Bengal testing is still disastrously low
The government made the cash infusion before the financial year 2020-21 ended, letting FCI begin FY22 on a clean slate in terms of unsecured loans
Gaps in recovery have been surfacing after the resurgence in new cases due to Covid-19 second wave, but the moderation in the pick-up seems to have begun well before.
Deaths due to Covid-19 usually happen two to three weeks after the diagnosis of the disease, according to research and doctors' accounts
India's economic participation and opportunity index was rising till 2012
Worst affected district in the second wave, Pune struggles to fulfil vaccine capacity
The government expects to earn revenues of Rs 1.85 trillion in March 2021, 40 per cent lower than what it earned in the year-ago period
Going to polls, all competing parties in the state have announced cash support in some form or the other. States' initiatives usually land up in the Centre's kitty of welfare schemes later
The electorate is most likely to rate the govt on its response to the flood, its management of the economy after GST, and its recent response to Covid-19
After unlock, demand improved month-on-month till December, when it hit a speed-breaker
The 14-day average of new daily cases has risen from the low of about 1500 to over 5000 in less than a month, about four times fast than the time taken for this jump in the first wave
The flip-flop in flows of financial savings was not very different in advanced economies, where net financial savings rose sharply in Q1 and declined in Q2
But their Budget numbers are inclined to be overstated due to substantial revisions in revenues and grants shared by the Centre
Other big states see an uptick in cases as vaccination gathers pace at the other end
Bond markets are showing signs of nervousness, and yields on the 10-year government bonds are on the rise